Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.</li><li>Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.</li><li>With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.</li></ul>

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.

The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.</li><li>Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.</li><li>Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.</li></ul>

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

<ul>
<li>Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align – see how we view the risk/reward in various proxy trades below!</li>
<li>Apparently with the spikes in volatility over the last couple of weeks we need to talk about natural gas in Europe again.</li>
<li>Various people have been harping about the Natural Gas markets in Europe, so let’s once and for all lay it out. Nooo, we are not going to run out of gas this winter.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align – see how we view the risk/reward in various proxy trades below!
Apparently with the spikes in volatility over the last couple of weeks we need to talk about natural gas in Europe again.
Various people have been harping about the Natural Gas markets in Europe, so let’s once and for all lay it out. Nooo, we are not going to run out of gas this winter.


The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand...

Steno Research

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp

The Commodity Report

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!

Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)