Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.</li><li>The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.</li><li>Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.</li></ul>

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Conclusions up front: – We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again.</li><li>Our model is approaching the buy zone despite the recent weakness seen in Oil.</li><li>The big risk to our model is a supply increase from an exhausted Saudi Arabian one-man-army.</li></ul>

Conclusions up front: – We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again.Our model is approaching the buy zone despite the recent weakness seen in Oil.The big risk to our model is a supply increase from an exhausted Saudi Arabian one-man-army.

<ul><li>After moaning like it’s the beginning of the 00’s German industry has once again been lent a helping hand from the government and this could have a huge potential impact on global energy markets. </li><li>So let’s see what is up and down on the surface of the <a href="https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/stromsteuer-bundesregierung-100.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>. </li><li>First in order to help the very energy-intensive German industry the government has decided to decrease the taxes on electricity by a whopping 190% from almost 2 cents to 0.05 cents running into 2025.</li></ul>

After moaning like it’s the beginning of the 00’s German industry has once again been lent a helping hand from the government and this could have a huge potential impact on global energy markets. So let’s see what is up and down on the surface of the proposal. First in order to help the very energy-intensive German industry the government has decided to decrease the taxes on electricity by a whopping 190% from almost 2 cents to 0.05 cents running into 2025.

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Time to Buy Oil Again?

We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again. Our model is approaching the buy zone...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #46: Scholz to the rescue!

Take aways: German government coming to aid the industry. Demand may very well push an inelastic market. Global gas stock levels are very strong...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

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