Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&amp;P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024 (Fig 1).</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing the ~8% rise in the XLE and the ~6% rise in the Russell 2000.</li><li>The XLE’s 1H24 performance likely reflects oil prices trading in the $75 - $80/bbl band for much of the first six months of 2024 and natural gas prices which were negatively impacted by mild winter weather. </li></ul>

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&amp;P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024 (Fig 1).The S&amp;P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing the ~8% rise in the XLE and the ~6% rise in the Russell 2000.The XLE’s 1H24 performance likely reflects oil prices trading in the $75 - $80/bbl band for much of the first six months of 2024 and natural gas prices which were negatively impacted by mild winter weather. 

US Oil & Gas - Seeking a Balance Between Growth and Capital Returns to Shareholders

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending 12/Jul, after rising by 4 the previous week. </li>
<li>US oil rig count fell by 1 to 478, indicating 59 fewer oil rigs as compared to the same week last year. It is at its lowest since December 2021.</li>
<li>Despite a decline in the US oil rig count, US crude oil production matched the all-time high production of 13.3m bpd for the week ending 5/Jul, according to the EIA.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending 12/Jul, after rising by 4 the previous week. 
US oil rig count fell by 1 to 478, indicating 59 fewer oil rigs as compared to the same week last year. It is at its lowest since December 2021.
Despite a decline in the US oil rig count, US crude oil production matched the all-time high production of 13.3m bpd for the week ending 5/Jul, according to the EIA.


U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Count Continues on Downward Trend

<ul>
<li>US oil rig count stabilises at 479 as of the week ending on 5/July, after falling for five consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>The US natural gas rig count rose by 4 to 101, yet it remains 34 rigs lower than the count from the same week last year</li>
<li>Drilling activities in the US remain soft as upstream players prioritise shareholder returns over increasing output.</li>
</ul>


US oil rig count stabilises at 479 as of the week ending on 5/July, after falling for five consecutive weeks.
The US natural gas rig count rose by 4 to 101, yet it remains 34 rigs lower than the count from the same week last year
Drilling activities in the US remain soft as upstream players prioritise shareholder returns over increasing output.


US Oil Rig Decline Halts While Gas Rig Count Increases

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

US Oil & Gas - Seeking a Balance Between Growth and Capital Returns to Shareholders

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024. The S&P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing...

Water Tower Research

U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Count Continues on Downward Trend

US oil & gas rig count continued its downward trend following a brief pause last week. US crude production matched its all-time high of 13.3 mbpd....

Mint Finance

US Oil Rig Decline Halts While Gas Rig Count Increases

US oil & gas rig count rebounds after four weeks of decline, with gas rigs boosting the total while oil rigs remain stable. In the Permian Basin,...

Mint Finance

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