Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

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Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

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<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.</li><li>The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li><li>On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply</li>
<li>Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool</li>
<li>It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. <span style="font-weight: 400;">Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion</span>
</li>
</ul>


Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply
Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool
It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion



Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  </li>
<li>US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.</li>
<li>The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. </li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  
US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.
The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. 


Pickup in Gas Rigs Drive U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Higher

<ul>
<li>US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.</li>
<li>As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.</li>
</ul>


US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.
As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.


[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors' Targets Cut

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans...

The Commodity Report

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war...

Steno Research

Pickup in Gas Rigs Drive U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Higher

US oil and gas rig count rises for the second time in three weeks. Gas rigs increase by 3 while oil rigs drop by 1. Permian rig count remains flat...

Mint Finance

[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors' Targets Cut

US crude inventories fell for the third straight week, while gasoline and distillate stocks exceeded expectations. US & European gas storage above...

Mint Finance

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

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