Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.</li>
<li>The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.</li>
<li>Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.</li>
</ul>


Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.
The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.</li>
<li>We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.</li>
<li>Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. </li>
</ul>


H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 


Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

<ul>
<li>Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.</li>
<li>Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
</ul>


Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.
Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.
Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.


Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

<ul>
<li>ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.</li>
<li>The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.</li>
<li>We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.</li>
</ul>


ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.
The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.
We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.


ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space. We remain biased to be Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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