Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.</li><li>Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.</li><li>Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.</li></ul>

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> in an overseas placement. </li>
<li>This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.</li>
<li>Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. </li>
</ul>


Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 


Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Japan

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures Aircraft and Hydraulic products, Precision equipment, and transportation equipment. The Company's products include landing gear system for aircrafts, railroad vehicle brake system, and precision reduction gears for industrial robots.

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Nabtesco (6268 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.

Contrarian Cashflows

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Toyota is selling a US$125mm stake in Harmonic Drive Systems. That's 4.55%. Not overwhelming but it will increase the ownership of the target...

Travis Lundy

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.

Contrarian Cashflows

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Toyota is selling a US$125mm stake in Harmonic Drive Systems. That's 4.55%. Not overwhelming but it will increase the ownership of the target...

Travis Lundy

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.