Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.</li><li>Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.</li><li>Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.</li></ul>

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> in an overseas placement. </li>
<li>This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.</li>
<li>Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. </li>
</ul>


Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 


Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.</li><li>That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.</li><li>Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

Japan

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures Aircraft and Hydraulic products, Precision equipment, and transportation equipment. The Company's products include landing gear system for aircrafts, railroad vehicle brake system, and precision reduction gears for industrial robots.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nabtesco (6268 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.

Contrarian Cashflows

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Toyota is selling a US$125mm stake in Harmonic Drive Systems. That's 4.55%. Not overwhelming but it will increase the ownership of the target...

Travis Lundy

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.

Contrarian Cashflows

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Toyota is selling a US$125mm stake in Harmonic Drive Systems. That's 4.55%. Not overwhelming but it will increase the ownership of the target...

Travis Lundy

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.