Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 42  - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals: scrip mergers for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)</a>; and the Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China TCM (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42  - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals: scrip mergers forAuswide Bank (ABA AU), Latin Resources (LRS AU) &amp; Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU); and the Tender Offer for Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP).
Key updates took place on: Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), China TCM (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Auswide, Latin Resources, Platinum Asset, Trancom, Pacific Smiles

<ul>
<li>Back on the 19th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">MyState Ltd (MYS AU)</a>, Tasmania’s biggest bank, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240819/pdf/066rhk5tz7gyr8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a merger</a> agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.</li>
<li>This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 19th August, MyState Ltd (MYS AU), Tasmania’s biggest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based Auswide Bank (ABA AU).
Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.
This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. 


MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. </li>
<li>Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.</li>
<li>WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.</li>
</ul>


Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. 
Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.
WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.


Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Diving Deep into Hindenburg Research's comprehensive report on Temenos triggers a market plunge, alleging accounting manipulations, failed North American expansion, product failures, and troubled European deals.</li>
<li>Allegations include aggressive revenue recognition, excessive R&amp;D capitalization, difficulty in revenue collection, inflated free cash flow, and executive insiders stock divestment.</li>
<li>Temenos denies allegations, defending its business integrity, performance, and financial standing, but market volatility persists, emphasizing the need for transparent communication and governance reassurance.</li>
</ul>


Diving Deep into Hindenburg Research's comprehensive report on Temenos triggers a market plunge, alleging accounting manipulations, failed North American expansion, product failures, and troubled European deals.
Allegations include aggressive revenue recognition, excessive R&amp;D capitalization, difficulty in revenue collection, inflated free cash flow, and executive insiders stock divestment.
Temenos denies allegations, defending its business integrity, performance, and financial standing, but market volatility persists, emphasizing the need for transparent communication and governance reassurance.


Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's Exposé on Temenos

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion.  The revolution in Australian housing reflects a shift towards higher density dwellings.  Building approvals for high density dwellings now accounts for half of residential approvals, well above the historical norm of around one-third.  Moreover, within the higher density segment, there has been a shift towards apartment blocks with four or more storeys.</li><li>Evidente believes that Australia's housing revolution is here to stay.  Australia's urban population density is still amongst the lowest in the world, consumer tastes continue to evolve towards more affordable, apartment living, and there are simply physical limits to the urban sprawl in Australia's major cities.</li><li>I identify two listed stocks that are leveraged to the prospect of strong growth in transport infrastructure designed to ease traffic congestion associated with more higher density dwellings: toll road operator, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/593" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:593">Transurban Group (TCL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12350" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350">Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)</a>, which generates more than one-third of its revenues from its transport services and rail divisions.</li><li>Around the new normal however, booms and busts are inevitable. The RBA has identified a growing risk of over-supply of apartments emerging in inner city Brisbane and Melbourne.  Bank exposures here are limited such that apartment prices would need to drop by more than 25% for banks to experience material losses.  Evidente's model portfolio remains modestly overweight Australia's major banks due to the large P/B discount relative to industrials.</li></ul>

A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion.  The revolution in Australian housing reflects a shift towards higher density dwellings.  Building approvals for high density dwellings now accounts for half of residential approvals, well above the historical norm of around one-third.  Moreover, within the higher density segment, there has been a shift towards apartment blocks with four or more storeys.Evidente believes that Australia's housing revolution is here to stay.  Australia's urban population density is still amongst the lowest in the world, consumer tastes continue to evolve towards more affordable, apartment living, and there are simply physical limits to the urban sprawl in Australia's major cities.I identify two listed stocks that are leveraged to the prospect of strong growth in transport infrastructure designed to ease traffic congestion associated with more higher density dwellings: toll road operator, Transurban Group (TCL AU), and Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU), which generates more than one-third of its revenues from its transport services and rail divisions.Around the new normal however, booms and busts are inevitable. The RBA has identified a growing risk of over-supply of apartments emerging in inner city Brisbane and Melbourne.  Bank exposures here are limited such that apartment prices would need to drop by more than 25% for banks to experience material losses.  Evidente's model portfolio remains modestly overweight Australia's major banks due to the large P/B discount relative to industrials.

Australia's Housing Revolution Continues, but for How Much Longer?

Australia

MyState Ltd. is a credit union.  The credit union accepts deposits and offers commercial, home, land, automobile and personal loans; and sponsors credit cards.

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Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Auswide, Latin Resources, Platinum Asset, Trancom, Pacific Smiles

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Trading at terms - inclusive of Auswide's final dividend. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look to set up the trade should the...

David Blennerhassett

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's Exposé on Temenos

Reason behind 33% Fall in Temenos Share Price: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's latest exposé on Temenos comprising of financial...

Nimish Maheshwari

Australia's Housing Revolution Continues, but for How Much Longer?

A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion. The revolution in Australian housing...

Sam Ferraro

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