External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.</li><li>September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.</li><li>That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023.</li>
<li>But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes?</li>
<li>We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.</li>
</ul>


Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023.
But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes?
We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.


EM By EM #12 - Is the Surging Peso a Prelude for a Longer Mexico Bull Case?

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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MXN (USDMXN CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future...

Scotiabank

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

EM By EM #12 - Is the Surging Peso a Prelude for a Longer Mexico Bull Case?

Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023. But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes? We give our take...

Steno Research

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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