Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.</li>
<li>In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.</li>
<li>These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.</li>
</ul>


Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.
In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.
These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.


EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively in consolidation mode after its New Year gains.</li><li>Trading impulses look relatively limited this morning, suggesting more range trading for the majors as markets continue to focus on Thursday’s US CPI release as the next major catalyst. Stocks are broadly lower, a plus for the USD.</li><li>Bonds are mostly weaker but Treasurys are out-performing, leaving spreads moving marginally against the USD along the curve. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively in consolidation mode after its New Year gains.Trading impulses look relatively limited this morning, suggesting more range trading for the majors as markets continue to focus on Thursday’s US CPI release as the next major catalyst. Stocks are broadly lower, a plus for the USD.Bonds are mostly weaker but Treasurys are out-performing, leaving spreads moving marginally against the USD along the curve. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.</li><li>The JPY is a moderate outperformer on the session ahead of tonight’s Tokyo CPI data while high beta FX is underperforming.</li><li>Lower oil prices are weighing on the NOK but softer stocks generally—after hefty falls in Chinese markets earlier—are weighing on the AUD and NZD. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.The JPY is a moderate outperformer on the session ahead of tonight’s Tokyo CPI data while high beta FX is underperforming.Lower oil prices are weighing on the NOK but softer stocks generally—after hefty falls in Chinese markets earlier—are weighing on the AUD and NZD. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Holds Steady as Jobs Data Dust Settles

<ul><li>The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.</li><li>The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.</li><li>Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles. In the...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Rebounds but Holds Range

Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Holds Steady as Jobs Data Dust Settles

FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

he USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

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