European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multichoice-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28016:1" rel="noopener">MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)</a> and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.</li>
<li>On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.</li>
</ul>



MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ) and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.
On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.


Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. </li>
<li>MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.</li>
<li>ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.</li>
</ul>


JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. 
MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.
ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.


<ul>
<li>Last week Friday, JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction. Turnover for the day was R53.7bn, R37bn traded in the closing auction (68%).</li>
<li>Turnover at the June rebalance was R58bn, 66% traded in the closing auction.</li>
<li>Foreign activity in MRP on Friday suggests that there was a large buyer, despite muted index weight changes.</li>
</ul>


Last week Friday, JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction. Turnover for the day was R53.7bn, R37bn traded in the closing auction (68%).
Turnover at the June rebalance was R58bn, 66% traded in the closing auction.
Foreign activity in MRP on Friday suggests that there was a large buyer, despite muted index weight changes.


JSE Sep24 Rebalance: Foreigners Bid up MRP, PPH Trades 11 Times ADV

<ul>
<li>On Friday in the closing auction, JSE indices will be rebalanced. PPH will enter the Top 40, with AMS falling out.</li>
<li>There are also a number of changes to the ALSI index – PHP &amp; PMR will be added, with THA &amp; TCP falling out.</li>
<li>Hedgers and passives tracking uncapped indices will be sellers of Naspers and Prosus whereas those tracking the capped variants will be buyers.</li>
</ul>


On Friday in the closing auction, JSE indices will be rebalanced. PPH will enter the Top 40, with AMS falling out.
There are also a number of changes to the ALSI index – PHP &amp; PMR will be added, with THA &amp; TCP falling out.
Hedgers and passives tracking uncapped indices will be sellers of Naspers and Prosus whereas those tracking the capped variants will be buyers.


JSE Sep24 Rebal: Foreign Inward Listings Amongst Top Sells, PPH to Enter Top 40, AMS to Be Deleted

<ul>
<li>Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September rebalance. The rebalance is scheduled to take place during the closing auction on Friday the 20th of September.</li>
<li>PPH is expected to enter the Top 40 with AMS falling out. No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI.</li>
<li>There are several noteworthy free float changes across ALSI constituents, particularly amongst foreign counters (detail below).</li>
</ul>


Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September rebalance. The rebalance is scheduled to take place during the closing auction on Friday the 20th of September.
PPH is expected to enter the Top 40 with AMS falling out. No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI.
There are several noteworthy free float changes across ALSI constituents, particularly amongst foreign counters (detail below).


JSE Sep 24 Rebalance: PPH Expected to Enter Top 40, AMS to Fall Out

South Africa

MultiChoice Group operates as an entertainment company. The Company creates and secures the rights to content from all over the world. MultiChoice Group delivers content through direct to home, digital terrestrial television, and online video-entertainment services.

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MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

JSE Sep24 Rebalance: Foreigners Bid up MRP, PPH Trades 11 Times ADV

A summary of trade analytics for the September rebalance. Foreign activity suggests a large buyer in MRP. PPH entered the Top 40, AMS fell out.

DMA

JSE Sep24 Rebal: Foreign Inward Listings Amongst Top Sells, PPH to Enter Top 40, AMS to Be Deleted

An overview of the top buys and sells going into the JSE September rebalance on Friday. AGL & CFR are amongst the top sells, resulting from a...

DMA

JSE Sep 24 Rebalance: PPH Expected to Enter Top 40, AMS to Fall Out

Last night, the snapshot for the JSE September rebalance was taken. We expect PPH to enter the Top 40 index, with AMS falling out. We also provide...

DMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

​MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

JSE Sep24 Rebalance: Foreigners Bid up MRP, PPH Trades 11 Times ADV

A summary of trade analytics for the September rebalance. Foreign activity suggests a large buyer in MRP. PPH entered the Top 40, AMS fell out.

DMA

JSE Sep24 Rebal: Foreign Inward Listings Amongst Top Sells, PPH to Enter Top 40, AMS to Be Deleted

An overview of the top buys and sells going into the JSE September rebalance on Friday. AGL & CFR are amongst the top sells, resulting from a...

DMA

JSE Sep 24 Rebalance: PPH Expected to Enter Top 40, AMS to Fall Out

Last night, the snapshot for the JSE September rebalance was taken. We expect PPH to enter the Top 40 index, with AMS falling out. We also provide...

DMA

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...