European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multichoice-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28016:1" rel="noopener">MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)</a> and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.</li>
<li>On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.</li>
</ul>



MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ) and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.
On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.


Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. </li>
<li>MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.</li>
<li>ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.</li>
</ul>


JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. 
MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.
ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.</li>
<li>Lawrence Ho is buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco(200 HK)</a>. While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.</li>
<li>Avoid being long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.</li>
</ul>


9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.
Lawrence Ho is buying Melco(200 HK). While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
Avoid being long Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

<ul><li>Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.</li><li>The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)</li><li>The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)</li></ul>

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Between early-2018 and late-2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> management took meaningful steps to attempt a narrowing of their discount to listed NAV, the most important of which was announcing the intended spin-off of all Naspers’ ex-South African internet assets into a new entity, Prosus, to be listed on Euronext Amsterdam, with a secondary listing on the JSE, which resulted in a narrowing of the discount from c.35% to c.25%. However, in the year since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount manifest given Prosus’ c. 27% discount to its listed NAV as well as Naspers’ c. 29% discount to its listed NAV (which entirely comprises its 73% shareholding in Prosus). Intuitively, this seems excessive and, in this insight, I take a closer look at, what I believe to be, the top reasons for this discount, to find catalysts which might unlock value. I believe we will continue to see a c.25% holding company discount at Prosus, with another c.20% warranted at Naspers. I cannot, however, identify any catalysts that would cause the “double” discount to widen and have applied these values to my SOTP. I estimate fair value for Prosus at €101/share (31% upside) and Naspers at R4,404/share (47% upside).

Between early-2018 and late-2019, Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) management took meaningful steps to attempt a narrowing of their discount to listed NAV, the most important of which was announcing the intended spin-off of all Naspers’ ex-South African internet assets into a new entity, Prosus, to be listed on Euronext Amsterdam, with a secondary listing on the JSE, which resulted in a narrowing of the discount from c.35% to c.25%. However, in the year since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount manifest given Prosus’ c. 27% discount to its listed NAV as well as Naspers’ c. 29% discount to its listed NAV (which entirely comprises its 73% shareholding in Prosus). Intuitively, this seems excessive and, in this insight, I take a closer look at, what I believe to be, the top reasons for this discount, to find catalysts which might unlock value. I believe we will continue to see a c.25% holding company discount at Prosus, with another c.20% warranted at Naspers. I cannot, however, identify any catalysts that would cause the “double” discount to widen and have applied these values to my SOTP. I estimate fair value for Prosus at €101/share (31% upside) and Naspers at R4,404/share (47% upside).

Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues

South Africa

MultiChoice Group operates as an entertainment company. The Company creates and secures the rights to content from all over the world. MultiChoice Group delivers content through direct to home, digital terrestrial television, and online video-entertainment services.

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MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February. The three largest additions to the World Index measured by...

DMA

Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues

Since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount to listed NAV manifest at Naspers. I take a closer look at the top reasons for this...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

​MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February. The three largest additions to the World Index measured by...

DMA

Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues

Since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount to listed NAV manifest at Naspers. I take a closer look at the top reasons for this...

Wium Malan, CFA

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...