Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Among many e-commerce names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.</li>
<li>Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.</li>
<li>At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Among many e-commerce names, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.
Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.
At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.


Research from Mita Securities, Mita Securities

Mita Securities

Research from Mita Securities

Mita Securities provides a full scale diversified investment banking and financial services. A comprehensive investment banking department, specializes in rights offerings advisory, take-over bids agents, M&A etc. Including a proprietary trading desk, and wealth management department that offers brokerage, custody, real estate, and full proxy services.

<ul><li>New target price 2,150 yen; Reiterate our Hold rating</li><li>On February 3, the company announced FY12/21 consolidated OP of 24.1bn yen (+23.1% YoY, OPM 12.7%), slightly below the company’s guidance of 24.7bn yen</li><li>Mita Securities’ earnings forecast: Lowering our OPM assumptions</li></ul>

New target price 2,150 yen; Reiterate our Hold ratingOn February 3, the company announced FY12/21 consolidated OP of 24.1bn yen (+23.1% YoY, OPM 12.7%), slightly below the company’s guidance of 24.7bn yenMita Securities’ earnings forecast: Lowering our OPM assumptions

MonotaRO (3064): Earnings Forecast Update. Focus on Evolution of Logistics Infrastructure

<ul><li>Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly target</li><li>Sales to large corporations increased by around 37% YoY, slightly below the company’s target.</li><li>Cost control may attract more attention than sales growth</li></ul>

Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly targetSales to large corporations increased by around 37% YoY, slightly below the company’s target.Cost control may attract more attention than sales growth

MonotaRO (3064): January Sales Achieved the Target.

<ul><li>FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecast</li><li>Consolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7% YoY), and OPM was 12.8 (vs. 12.1% for 3Q)</li><li>FY12/22 guidance should be a negative surprise to the market</li></ul>

FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecastConsolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7% YoY), and OPM was 12.8 (vs. 12.1% for 3Q)FY12/22 guidance should be a negative surprise to the market

MonotaRO (3064): FY12/22 Guidance Came as a Negative Surprise.

<ul><li>Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s target</li><li>The number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5 thousand accounts(-3.8% YoY), below the company’s target.</li><li>Jan-Dec cumulative parent sales were 182.467bn yen (+20.2% YoY), 97.7% vs. the full-year guidance of 186.759bn yen (+23.0% YoY)</li></ul>

Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s targetThe number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5 thousand accounts(-3.8% YoY), below the company’s target.Jan-Dec cumulative parent sales were 182.467bn yen (+20.2% YoY), 97.7% vs. the full-year guidance of 186.759bn yen (+23.0% YoY)

MonotaRO (3064): December Sales Announced.

Japan

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

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MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)

MonotaRo: A Rare Winner in E-Commerce

While most e-commerce players are fighting each other and the e-commerce arms of traditional businesses, MonotaRo operates in a niche with very...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MonotaRO (3064): Earnings Forecast Update. Focus on Evolution of Logistics Infrastructure

New target price 2,150 yen; Reiterate our Hold rating. On February 3, the company announced FY12/21 consolidated OP of 24.1bn yen (+23.1% YoY, OPM...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064): January Sales Achieved the Target.

Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly target. Sales to large corporations increased...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064): FY12/22 Guidance Came as a Negative Surprise.

FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecast. Consolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7%...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064): December Sales Announced.

Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s target. The number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5...

Mita Securities

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