Research from Mita Securities, Mita Securities

Mita Securities

Research from Mita Securities

Mita Securities provides a full scale diversified investment banking and financial services. A comprehensive investment banking department, specializes in rights offerings advisory, take-over bids agents, M&A etc. Including a proprietary trading desk, and wealth management department that offers brokerage, custody, real estate, and full proxy services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly target</li><li>Sales to large corporations increased by around 37% YoY, slightly below the company’s target.</li><li>Cost control may attract more attention than sales growth</li></ul>

Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly targetSales to large corporations increased by around 37% YoY, slightly below the company’s target.Cost control may attract more attention than sales growth

MonotaRO (3064): January Sales Achieved the Target.

<ul><li>FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecast</li><li>Consolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7% YoY), and OPM was 12.8 (vs. 12.1% for 3Q)</li><li>FY12/22 guidance should be a negative surprise to the market</li></ul>

FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecastConsolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7% YoY), and OPM was 12.8 (vs. 12.1% for 3Q)FY12/22 guidance should be a negative surprise to the market

MonotaRO (3064): FY12/22 Guidance Came as a Negative Surprise.

<ul><li>Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s target</li><li>The number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5 thousand accounts(-3.8% YoY), below the company’s target.</li><li>Jan-Dec cumulative parent sales were 182.467bn yen (+20.2% YoY), 97.7% vs. the full-year guidance of 186.759bn yen (+23.0% YoY)</li></ul>

Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s targetThe number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5 thousand accounts(-3.8% YoY), below the company’s target.Jan-Dec cumulative parent sales were 182.467bn yen (+20.2% YoY), 97.7% vs. the full-year guidance of 186.759bn yen (+23.0% YoY)

MonotaRO (3064): December Sales Announced.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Results fell short of plan in the nine months to September. It looks like the company will miss FY Dec-21 sales and profit guidance by about 3%. </li>
<li>Sales growth is likely to remain high while margins remain under pressure.</li>
<li>If 20% sales growth can be maintained and margins stabilize, the P/E ratio could drop from more than 60x now to 40x over the next 3 years.</li>
</ul>


Results fell short of plan in the nine months to September. It looks like the company will miss FY Dec-21 sales and profit guidance by about 3%. 
Sales growth is likely to remain high while margins remain under pressure.
If 20% sales growth can be maintained and margins stabilize, the P/E ratio could drop from more than 60x now to 40x over the next 3 years.


MonotaRO (3064 JP): Falling Short of Guidance, Interview Takeaways Mixed

<ul>
<li>We have lowered our target price from 2,750 yen to 2,350 yen. We maintain our Hold rating</li>
<li>The sales growth of large corporation business has been remarkable, while the sales growth of monogaro.com business, which accounts for approximately 80% of sales, has been calming down</li>
<li>The company's overseas subsidiaries (South Korea, Indonesia, and India) have not been able to grow sufficiently due to the impact of the pandemic and region-specific factors</li>
</ul>


We have lowered our target price from 2,750 yen to 2,350 yen. We maintain our Hold rating
The sales growth of large corporation business has been remarkable, while the sales growth of monogaro.com business, which accounts for approximately 80% of sales, has been calming down
The company's overseas subsidiaries (South Korea, Indonesia, and India) have not been able to grow sufficiently due to the impact of the pandemic and region-specific factors


MonotaRO: Lowering Our Earnings Forecast and Target Price

Japan

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

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MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)

MonotaRO (3064): January Sales Achieved the Target.

Parent company sales in January 2022 were 16.356bn yen (+17.6% YoY), achieving the company’s monthly target. Sales to large corporations increased...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064): FY12/22 Guidance Came as a Negative Surprise.

FY12/21 OP 24.1bn yen; Misses the company guidance but exceeds our forecast. Consolidated OP for 4Q (Oct-Dec) was 6.6bn yen (+25.7% YoY, +16.7%...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064): December Sales Announced.

Parent company sales in December were 16.678bn yen (+20.5% YoY), above the company’s target. The number of new customer acquisitions was 106.5...

Mita Securities

MonotaRO (3064 JP): Falling Short of Guidance, Interview Takeaways Mixed

Falling short of guidance, but has been for two quarters. Sales rising at double-digit rates, but margin expansion unlikely. Not cheap at more than...

Scott Foster

MonotaRO: Lowering Our Earnings Forecast and Target Price

We have lowered our target price from 2,750 yen to 2,350 yen. We maintain our Hold rating. The sales growth of large corporation business has been...

Mita Securities

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