Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Shizuoka Financial Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit costs in September quarter are showing steep delta YoY and QoQ</li>
<li>Accelerated credit growth in past six months may mean there is more to come</li>
<li>Funding cost surge is keeping net interest income growth near zero despite swelling loans</li>
</ul>


Credit costs in September quarter are showing steep delta YoY and QoQ
Accelerated credit growth in past six months may mean there is more to come
Funding cost surge is keeping net interest income growth near zero despite swelling loans


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>The end of Rakuten free plans is unlikely to have a major industry read across although the end of loyalty point chasing should help save on promotional costs</li>
<li>Mobile erosion has likely peaked but full-year losses for FY22 will be higher than last year. We expect the progression to profitability to be modest</li>
<li>Listing the securities business is a positive as it surfaces fintech value but allocating proceeds from valuable asset sales to funding mobile is not</li>
</ul>


The end of Rakuten free plans is unlikely to have a major industry read across although the end of loyalty point chasing should help save on promotional costs
Mobile erosion has likely peaked but full-year losses for FY22 will be higher than last year. We expect the progression to profitability to be modest
Listing the securities business is a positive as it surfaces fintech value but allocating proceeds from valuable asset sales to funding mobile is not


Rakuten (Neutral) - Follow-Up on Q1 Results and Thoughts on a Securities Listing

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Monex results were weak as OP of ¥14.9bn missed consensus estimates for ¥18.4bn in OP. </li>
<li>Gains for DeFi token sales failed to offset continued heavy spending in the US and de-SPAC costs at Coincheck at a time when crypto has been weak. </li>
<li>Despite the negatives, the Japan business continues to form a solid base and arguably almost justifies the entire market cap on its own.</li>
</ul>


Monex results were weak as OP of ¥14.9bn missed consensus estimates for ¥18.4bn in OP. 
Gains for DeFi token sales failed to offset continued heavy spending in the US and de-SPAC costs at Coincheck at a time when crypto has been weak. 
Despite the negatives, the Japan business continues to form a solid base and arguably almost justifies the entire market cap on its own.


Monex – Crypto Business Keeps Weakening But Valuation Discount Excessive

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>In the previous "About the Article on Activist," I mentioned a little about the Monex Group, and will focus on Monex Group again regarding the coverage of the Nikkei article.</li>
<li>Monex Group is generally aligned with its shareholders' objective of sustainable growth in shareholder interest, and Oasis will remain static for the time being to see if stock returns materialize.</li>
<li>Monex also has generally strong board practices, plans its growth policy on a balance between investment in growth and shareholder returns, and is open to communication with investors.</li>
</ul>


In the previous "About the Article on Activist," I mentioned a little about the Monex Group, and will focus on Monex Group again regarding the coverage of the Nikkei article.
Monex Group is generally aligned with its shareholders' objective of sustainable growth in shareholder interest, and Oasis will remain static for the time being to see if stock returns materialize.
Monex also has generally strong board practices, plans its growth policy on a balance between investment in growth and shareholder returns, and is open to communication with investors.


Japan's Governance: About the Article on Monex Group (8698)

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Shizuoka - Indigestion

Credit costs rising a lot with ~10% higher loans in arrears in 1H23. Credit growth accelerating, but net interest income at near zero: COF up...

Daniel Tabbush

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Rakuten (Neutral) - Follow-Up on Q1 Results and Thoughts on a Securities Listing

Rakuten is trading at near-term lows as the path to mobile profitability and cash burn may be longer than expected. A second fintech IPO is...

Kirk Boodry

Monex – Crypto Business Keeps Weakening But Valuation Discount Excessive

Monex results were weak but the stock continues to trade at a an overly large discount to NAV even using relatively conservative assumptions. The...

Mio Kato

Japan's Governance: About the Article on Monex Group (8698)

Regarding the Nikkei article "Monex Subsidiary Coincheck to List on NASDAQ," I would like to focus on the Monex Group, following my previous...

Metrical Inc

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