Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>'s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.</li>
<li>Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.</li>
<li>Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.</li>
</ul>


Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)'s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.


NTT Docomo's Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inaba has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a> offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.</li>
<li>While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  </li>
</ul>


Inaba has bumped its Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP) offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.
The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.
While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.</li>
<li>While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.</li>
</ul>



Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. 
J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.
While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

Japan

Shizuoka Financial Group, Inc. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, fund management, domestic settlement, and other services. Shizuoka Financial Group provides its services throughout Japan.

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Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

With BOJ shifting its interest rate policy there can be vast differences with banks that have high cash holdings and banks with relatively low...

Daniel Tabbush

NTT Docomo's Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

NTT Docomo is going to take control of Monex Group's securities business leaving Monex with a 49% interest, some cash, the TradeStation biz,...

Travis Lundy

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a...

Arun George

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