Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. </li>
<li>That now appears to be happening and we are thus leery of the pure long trade here. </li>
<li>However, earnings trends are reasonable and we still like the name so we would examine hedging options.</li>
</ul>


We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. 
That now appears to be happening and we are thus leery of the pure long trade here. 
However, earnings trends are reasonable and we still like the name so we would examine hedging options.


Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.


Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2583:1" rel="noopener">NIPPO Corp (1881 JP)</a> reported Q2 earnings down sharply yoy (but forecasts for full year remained unchanged) and the Roadmap entity which two months ago had announced the intention to launch a Tender Offer on NIPPO today announced that the tender offer would start tomorrow.

Today, NIPPO Corp (1881 JP) reported Q2 earnings down sharply yoy (but forecasts for full year remained unchanged) and the Roadmap entity which two months ago had announced the intention to launch a Tender Offer on NIPPO today announced that the tender offer would start tomorrow. 

NIPPO (1881) Tender Offer to Launch - May Not Be A Done Deal

Monex is now up 15.2% in the eight days since we flagged that it had broken out of its downtrend. While that call was purely technical in nature, it is supported by a very cheap looking multiple and with bitcoin and ether threatening new highs, significant upside potential remains on the table.

Monex is now up 15.2% in the eight days since we flagged that it had broken out of its downtrend. While that call was purely technical in nature, it is supported by a very cheap looking multiple and with bitcoin and ether threatening new highs, significant upside potential remains on the table.

Just under three weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2583:1" rel="noopener">Nippo Corp (1881 JP)</a> parent company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> announced a slightly convoluted takeover of Nippo which was announced at a decidedly low price of ¥4,000/share. I wrote about this in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eneos-to-steamroll-nippo-1881-jp-minorities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57299" rel="noopener">ENEOS To Steamroll Nippo (1881 JP) Minorities</a>, calling the bid "egregiously low." I thought the "right price" was ¥1,500-2,000/share higher. I also thought that because of ENEOS' starting point, anyone who wanted to block it needed to go big and public with their opposition. I have long thought the issue of parent-sub takeovers and MBOs required more active (and passive) investor stewardship, and have published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-needs-more-cowbell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41191" rel="noopener">Japan Needs More Cowbell</a> about active investors and a kind of open letter to the former GPIF CIO Hiro Mizuno in the Financial Times, about <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dd680521-a9cc-4b1c-922d-4787d2a314f6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The GPIF and the Complexity of Stewardship</a>.On Friday we got a little noise as a small fund called the Monex Activist Mother Fund, managed by a fund management firm called Japan Catalyst, where the CIO is Oki Matsumoto, the current CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>, put out a <a href="https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=000000005.000075293&amp;g=prt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a>.  More discussion of the opportunity and its parameters to date below.

Just under three weeks ago, Nippo Corp (1881 JP) parent company ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) announced a slightly convoluted takeover of Nippo which was announced at a decidedly low price of ¥4,000/share. I wrote about this in ENEOS To Steamroll Nippo (1881 JP) Minorities, calling the bid "egregiously low." I thought the "right price" was ¥1,500-2,000/share higher. I also thought that because of ENEOS' starting point, anyone who wanted to block it needed to go big and public with their opposition. I have long thought the issue of parent-sub takeovers and MBOs required more active (and passive) investor stewardship, and have published Japan Needs More Cowbell about active investors and a kind of open letter to the former GPIF CIO Hiro Mizuno in the Financial Times, about The GPIF and the Complexity of Stewardship.On Friday we got a little noise as a small fund called the Monex Activist Mother Fund, managed by a fund management firm called Japan Catalyst, where the CIO is Oki Matsumoto, the current CEO of Monex Group Inc (8698 JP), put out a press release.  More discussion of the opportunity and its parameters to date below.

NIPPO (1881 JP) Gets Some Cowbell - It Probably Needs More

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge

We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. With that occurring we are leery...

Mio Kato

Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

NIPPO (1881) Tender Offer to Launch - May Not Be A Done Deal

The ENEOS+GS Tender Offer for ENEOS subsidiary NIPPO (1881) launches tomorrow. NIPPO is willing to distribute all their cash. The price is too low....

Travis Lundy

Monex – May Just Be Getting Started

Monex is now up 15.2% in the eight days since we flagged that it had broken out of its downtrend and with bitcoin and ether threatening new highs,...

Mio Kato

NIPPO (1881 JP) Gets Some Cowbell - It Probably Needs More

A relatively little-known activistish-if-not-wholly-activist DOMESTIC fund has called out the ENEOS takeover of NIPPO as being under-priced with a...

Travis Lundy

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