Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems.</li>
<li>There should be plenty of opportunities for IVF clinic operators, including for Jinxin Fertility which may benefit if the Chinese government introduces subsidies for IVF procedures. But the acquisitive nature of many IVF-related companies has caused their returns on equity and earnings per share growth to be weak.</li>
<li>One stock that trades at a low multiple with fat profit margins is Organon, though be aware of its ongoing patent cliffs, which may be the reason it was spun off in the first place.</li>
</ul>


The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems.
There should be plenty of opportunities for IVF clinic operators, including for Jinxin Fertility which may benefit if the Chinese government introduces subsidies for IVF procedures. But the acquisitive nature of many IVF-related companies has caused their returns on equity and earnings per share growth to be weak.
One stock that trades at a low multiple with fat profit margins is Organon, though be aware of its ongoing patent cliffs, which may be the reason it was spun off in the first place.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a>’s merger proposal (0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share) fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>While ACCC informal clearance is an overhang, the evidence suggests that clearance should be secured. The shareholder vote risk is low.</li>
<li>The offer terms are attractive. At the last close and for the 14 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/37.3%.  </li>
</ul>


The Capitol Health (CAJ AU) IE considers Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)’s merger proposal (0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share) fair and reasonable. 
While ACCC informal clearance is an overhang, the evidence suggests that clearance should be secured. The shareholder vote risk is low.
The offer terms are attractive. At the last close and for the 14 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/37.3%.  


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> has entered a binding merger proposal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a> at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.</li>
<li>The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. Due to the minimal geographic overlap, ACCC clearance should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.0%. </li>
</ul>



Capitol Health (CAJ AU) has entered a binding merger proposal with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. Due to the minimal geographic overlap, ACCC clearance should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.0%. 


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

<ul>
<li>On 17 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a> at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.</li>
<li>Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  </li>
</ul>


On 17 June, Capitol Health (CAJ AU) disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash Ivf (MVF AU)</a> delivered a strong result in H1FY24, with revenue growth of 22% YoY to A$126M and underlying NPAT growth of 19% YoY to A$15M.</li>
<li>The company has guided for FY24 underlying NPAT of A$29–30M compared to A$25.5M in the prior comparative period (excluding contribution from the Fertility North acquisition).</li>
<li>Secular industry tailwinds, consistent market share gain, and strong new patient registrations provide a sustainable growth trajectory for Monash IVF.  </li>
</ul>



Monash Ivf (MVF AU) delivered a strong result in H1FY24, with revenue growth of 22% YoY to A$126M and underlying NPAT growth of 19% YoY to A$15M.
The company has guided for FY24 underlying NPAT of A$29–30M compared to A$25.5M in the prior comparative period (excluding contribution from the Fertility North acquisition).
Secular industry tailwinds, consistent market share gain, and strong new patient registrations provide a sustainable growth trajectory for Monash IVF.  


Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

Australia

Monash IVF Group Ltd. is a fertility research and treatment center. The Company researches and develops reproduction supportive medications.

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Monash IVF (MVF AU)

IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.

The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems. There should be plenty of...

Asian Century Stocks

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

The merger update notes that Integral has proposed to divest a Capitol clinic in Melton, Victoria, to secure ACCC approval. The ACCC provisional...

Arun George

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

No substantial shareholder has vocally opposed the merger, and the offer price is attractive. The key risk is if Integral becomes a takeover...

Arun George

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.

Arun George

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.

The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems. There should be plenty of...

Asian Century Stocks

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

The merger update notes that Integral has proposed to divest a Capitol clinic in Melton, Victoria, to secure ACCC approval. The ACCC provisional...

Arun George

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

No substantial shareholder has vocally opposed the merger, and the offer price is attractive. The key risk is if Integral becomes a takeover...

Arun George

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.

Arun George

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

​Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...

Tina Banerjee

Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...