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Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

Covid-19 /: Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinationsCrypto /: Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investorsChina-India /: China calls India border situation ‘generally stable’

Covid-19 /: Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinationsCrypto /: Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investorsChina-India /: China calls India border situation ‘generally stable’

CX Daily: Chinese Mainlanders Rush to Macao for MRNA Vaccinations

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech


Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.</li>
<li>Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  </li>
<li>With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.</li>
</ul>



Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.


Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

United States

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and commercializes therapeutic enzyme products.  The Company has applied its proprietary enzyme technology to develop products for lysosomal storage diseases and for the treatment of serious burns. BioMarin's subsidiary provides analytical and diagnostic products and services in the area of carbohydrate biology.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. is an early-stage therapeutics company. The Company is developing technology that can specifically and potently silence disease-causing genes.

United Therapeutics Corporation develops pharmaceuticals to treat vascular diseases such as pulmonary hypertension and peripheral vascular disease.  The Company's lead products are stable synthetic forms of prostacyclin and are delivered orally or subcutaneously.

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics for neuropsychiatric, neuroinflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders.  The Company is developing therapeutic interventions for anxiety, depression, Alzheimer's disease, insomnia, stroke, malignant brain tumors, multiple sclerosis, obesity, and diabetes.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of unique RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of both rare and infectious diseases. The Company offers its products to the medical industry in countries around the world.

Incyte Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company discovers, develops and commercializes proprietary small molecule drugs, primarily used in oncology.

Insmed, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel, targeted inhaled therapies for patients with high unmet need battling serious orphan lung diseases.

Blueprint Medicines Corporation develops and distributes biomedical treatments. The Company researches and produces medicines and treatments for cancer targeting the molecular differences. Blueprint Medicines focuses selective drugs for genomically defined cancer patients.

Exact Sciences Corp., is focused on developing and commercializing a non-invasive molecular screening test for the early detection and prevention of colorectal cancer. The Company's test is a stool-based DNA test that identifies both pre-cancer and cancer by detecting genetic mutations in colorectal cancer cells.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company researches in RNA-targeted drug discovery and development that focuses on drugs for patients who have unmet medical needs. Ionis Pharmaceuticals serves customers in the United States.

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company creates and develops human antibody products for the treatment of life threatening and debilitating diseases. Genmab focuses on products to treat cancer, rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions, and psoriasis. The Company develops new products through partnerships. Genmab operates in Europe and the United States.

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company specializes in development of antibody therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. Genmab serves customers worldwide.

argenx SE operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops antibody based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. argenx serves customers in the Netherlands and Belgium.

BioNTech SE provides biotechnological solutions. The Company develops various types of treatments for cancer patients' tumors. BioNTech serves customers worldwide.

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited researches, develops, and commercializes biological products.  The Company provides treatment for hepatitis and offers a line of vaccine products including hepatitis vaccines and rubella vaccines.

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products (600161 CH)

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Alteogen Inc. is a pharmaceutical research company.  The Company researches and develops bio-medicines such as bio-better and bio-similar.

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

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Moderna (MRNA US)

CX Daily: Chinese Mainlanders Rush to Macao for MRNA Vaccinations

Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinations. Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investors. China calls India border...

Caixin Global

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Moderna’s Q3 result missed expectations. The company has cut 2022 vaccine revenue guidance. Multiple data readouts for respiratory and cancer...

Tina Banerjee

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

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