HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CanSino’s performance picked up in 24Q2. CDMO revenue is a surprise, which would become the second growth curve. Effective cost control and increased demand for meningococcal vaccines narrowed net losses. </li>
<li>The short-term highlight in business progress is PCV13i, whose approval process is faster-than-expected. This means CanSino’s revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations. Controlling shareholders and management have increased their holdings.</li>
<li>CanSino’s revenue is expected to reach RMB750 million in 2024. If revenue this year reaches RMB800 million or above, it's beyond expectations. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5-10 billion.</li>
</ul>


CanSino’s performance picked up in 24Q2. CDMO revenue is a surprise, which would become the second growth curve. Effective cost control and increased demand for meningococcal vaccines narrowed net losses. 
The short-term highlight in business progress is PCV13i, whose approval process is faster-than-expected. This means CanSino’s revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations. Controlling shareholders and management have increased their holdings.
CanSino’s revenue is expected to reach RMB750 million in 2024. If revenue this year reaches RMB800 million or above, it's beyond expectations. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5-10 billion.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - Breakeven May Arrive Earlier than Expected

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

<ul>
<li>We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.</li>
<li>As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.</li>
<li>The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.</li>
</ul>


We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.
As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.
The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) - 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino

<ul>
<li>We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.</li>
<li>Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.</li>
<li>CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.</li>
</ul>


We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.
Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.
CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

China

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops and manufactures biological vaccine products. The Company discovers quadrivalence meningococcal conjugate, pneumococcal polysaccharide, and adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines for human use. CanSino Biologics serves customers worldwide.

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CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)