Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes</li>
<li>JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products</li>
<li>NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)


Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !</li>
<li>NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q
JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !
NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff</li>
<li>Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE</li>
<li>We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 


Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.</li>
<li>JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky</li>
<li>NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.
JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky
NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.


Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. 
DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?


Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

NS United Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. operates specialized carriers and tramps to ship iron ore, steel, coal, crude oil, and gas. The Company is affiliated with Nippon Yusen. The Company also has close ties with Nippon Steel.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. owns and operates specialized tankers such as oil, chemical, and LPG carriers.  The Company transports crude oil, petroleum gasoline, and various dry consumer and agricultural goods.  Iino Kaiun Kaisha also leases and sells real estate.

Japan Transcity Corporation provides warehousing and transportation services. The Company handles marine cargo mainly around port of Yokkaichi City, and transports a variety of products such as automobiles, coal, and chemicals. Japan Transcity specializes in international intermodal transportation.

NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD is a marine transportation company. The Company mainly offers international and domestic container marine transportation services. NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD also operates warehousing and cargo handling services.

Nippon Concept Corporation is mainly engaged in providing ISO tank container transportation service.  The Company also offers container cleaning services, logistic solutions, and maintenance services.

Meiji Shipping Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services. The Company also provides technical management, marine staffing, supplies Italian kitchen fixtures, and supplies nautical equipment. Meiji, also in involved in real estate and operates hotels and restaurants.

Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers a variety of scheduled  flights and unscheduled flights throughout the world as well as offers air courier services. Japan Airlines also provides tickets, resort hotels, and travel agencies services.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Matson Inc., is involved in transportation and logistics.  The Company offers provides  multimodal transportation services to the North American market, including domestic and international rail intermodal service, long haul and regional highway brokerage, supply chain services and LTL transportation services, as well as third-party logistics services.

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Expect a broadly quiet start in Japan. Panasonic plans to establish its third US battery plant;. JT increasing its focus on heated stick products;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

US equities close out a solid quarter. For Japan, at the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs;...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

We think that the current share price level of Mitsui OSK is the “last hurrah” after the company goes ex-dividend on March 30 when the company pays...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

CS is no more as UBS steps in with a rescue. Japanese markets are expected to open strong today following the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse + global...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

JAPAN WRAP. NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11. Set for a decent day after the Beta-driven rally in the US. Still, it won't be all green on the...

Mark Chadwick

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