Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>, which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. </li>
<li>A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>. Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.</li>
<li>Loo Choon Yong, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raffles-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:879:1" rel="noopener">Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)</a>'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,</li>
</ul>


It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.46% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. The shares purchases began two days after the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> secondary offering.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,607.30 per share, 2.3% higher than the recent secondary offering price of JPY2,549.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents suggest the latter.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.46% position in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The shares purchases began two days after the Aisin (7259 JP) secondary offering.
Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,607.30 per share, 2.3% higher than the recent secondary offering price of JPY2,549.
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents suggest the latter.


Exedy Corp (7278 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San now owns far more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.</li>
<li>The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>. It is also informative for what isn't present.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will continue.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-San now owns far more in Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.
The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in L'Occitane (973 HK). It is also informative for what isn't present.

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).</li>
<li>Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.</li>
<li>Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. </li>
</ul>


Two weeks ago, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).
Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.
Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. 


Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Japan

SUMISEKI HOLDINGS, INC. is a holding company established through the reorganization of Sumitomo Coal Mining Co., Ltd.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, wholesales coal, cement, and industrial machinery. Sumiseki Holdings also operates truck and marine transportation services.

Toshin Group co., ltd. is a holding company, which manages operations for its subsidiaries. Group company primarily wholesales housing products.  The Company sells lighting equipment, electrical engineering materials such as cables and housing fixtures including system kitchens and air-conditioning equipment. Toshin also directly sells the products to electrical and building contractors.

KAMEI CORPORATION is a trading company specializing in petroleum and gas products.  The Company also operates gas stations in Tohoku area (north part of Japan) and distributes alcoholic beverages, food, and construction material such as cement and concrete.

Shinsho Corporation is a steel maker and trader.  The Company produces steel products, steel making materials, nonferrous metals, machinery, welding materials, and electronics products.

Japan Pulp and Paper Co Ltd distributes papers, paperboard, pulps, and paper-related products.  The Company also operates real estate business. Japan Pulp & Paper owns a network of overseas operations in Asia, Oceania, and the North America.

DAIICHI JITSUGYO CO., LTD. trades machinery.  The Company also trades various type of materials such as pipes, construction, plastics, fastener, and chemicals.  Daiichi Jitsugyo leases machinery and real estate.

SEIKA CORPORATION, a member of Mitsubishi Group, is a trading company handling machine tools, power generators, electronic equipment, and other industrial machinery.  The Company also distributes information technology (IT) related equipment, special testing equipment, and environmental preservation devices.

Kokusai Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. sells paper products. The Company wholesales and distributes paper boards, pulps, and other products. Kokusai Pulp & Paper also operates real estate leasing, warehousing, and other businesses.

SENSHU ELECTRIC CO., LTD. sells cable and wire products used for machinery, telecommunications, and electric power.  The company also makes control equipment and systems, and sells air conditioning and household appliance. Senshu develops, sells and consults computer information and telecommunication systems.

Wakita & Co., LTD. is a manufacturing and trading firm primarily handling construction and civil engineering equipment.  The Company also handles imported construction materials, industrial and commercial facilities, and audio-visual equipment.  Wakita leases construction machinery as well.

China National Complete Plant Import & Export Corp., Ltd. imports and exports industrial equipment and technologies, trades general merchandise, and invests in overseas operations.

China National Complete Import & Export (000151 CH)

CITIC Resources Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates the Portland Aluminum Smelter and sells aluminum finished products. The Company also imports and exports commodities. In addition, Citic Resources operates coal mining and exploration business.

Ideal United Bintang Berhad is an investment holding company which trades in heavy equipment and spare parts. The Company, through its subsidiaries, trades and leases heavy machinery.

Ace Pillar Co., Ltd. distributes inverters, industrial automation and control systems, and other related products.

Hong Kong ChaoShang Group Limited operates an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates vessel chartering, trading, money lending, factoring, and finance leasing business. Hong Kong ChaoShang Group provides services in Hong Kong.

Titan Machinery, Inc. owns and operates full service agricultural and construction equipment stores US and Europe. The Company sells, rents, and services Case/ New Holland agricultural and construction equipment as well as parts.

SIG plc distributes specialty building products. The Company provides thermal insulation, exterior roofing products, ceilings, partitionings, dry lining, floor coverings, glass and specialist door systems, and a wide range of related products. SIG offers its products to the construction industry primarily in Europe.

PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk distributes heavy equipment and provides after sales, rental recondition, and maintenance services.  The Company is a multiline distributor of Hitachi, John Deere, and Bell products.

Orient Group Incorporation principally engages in planting, processing, marketing, distributing, purchasing, and selling cereals and oil in China. It is also involved in developing, mining, and processing gold, silver, and other mineral resources and the retail and sale of home building materials.

Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of ball valves and transmissions for the chemical, petrochemical, and pharmaceutical industries, as well as operates smelteries.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces medicines and alcohol products, provides construction installation services, and trades merchandises.

Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co, Ltd. (600382 CH)

Mitsui Matsushima Co., Ltd. sells coal primarily in the Kyushu region.  The Company also produces construction machinery, cement, and building materials. Mitsui Matsushima operates supermarkets and real estate business as well.

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Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Exedy Corp (7278 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents suggest...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

In Japan one doesn't usually officially announce the next FY's earnings + dividend forecast before the just-ended year is finalised. Toyo did. ¥63...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

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