Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.</li>
<li>Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.</li>
<li>Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion</li>
</ul>


Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.
Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.
Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion


Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).</li>
<li>¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  </li>
<li>As is often the case, <strong>Shareholder Structure Matters</strong>. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).
¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  
As is often the case, Shareholder Structure Matters. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.


MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> reported 11% YoY revenue growth in its core hospital and healthcare business in 4Q22, mainly driven by higher inpatient admissions in most of the hospitals.  </li>
<li>In November 2022, India’s stock exchange regulator SEBI has advised IHH to proceed with the open offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortis-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:881:1" rel="noopener">Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN)</a> to acquire 26.1% stake after obtaining court permission.</li>
<li>IHH is cautiously optimistic of robust growth from its core business with the return of local and foreign patients to its hospitals.</li>
</ul>



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) reported 11% YoY revenue growth in its core hospital and healthcare business in 4Q22, mainly driven by higher inpatient admissions in most of the hospitals.  
In November 2022, India’s stock exchange regulator SEBI has advised IHH to proceed with the open offer for Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN) to acquire 26.1% stake after obtaining court permission.
IHH is cautiously optimistic of robust growth from its core business with the return of local and foreign patients to its hospitals.


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Core Business Recovery; Fortis Open Offer to Come Soon

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.</li>
<li>There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.</li>
<li>Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.</li>
</ul>


Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.
There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.
Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.


Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

<ul>
<li>TSI Holdings long managed to get away with half-hearted reforms because it was so rich.</li>
<li>Operating losses in 1H2024 and falls in sales at key brands have spurred the company to finally take real action, the last of the big apparel firms to do so.</li>
<li>The good news is that the business is so bulging with inefficiencies that it won't take much to boost income.</li>
</ul>


TSI Holdings long managed to get away with half-hearted reforms because it was so rich.
Operating losses in 1H2024 and falls in sales at key brands have spurred the company to finally take real action, the last of the big apparel firms to do so.
The good news is that the business is so bulging with inefficiencies that it won't take much to boost income.


TSI to Cull Brands and 20% of Staff and Deliver Real Profits – Finally

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Core Business Recovery; Fortis Open Offer to Come Soon

IHH reported 11% YoY and 7% QoQ revenue growth in hospital and healthcare business, driven by higher inpatient admissions. The company has got...

Tina Banerjee

Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

Michael Causton

TSI to Cull Brands and 20% of Staff and Deliver Real Profits – Finally

TSI Holdings finally taking real action after operating losses and sales declines, with potential for easy income boost due to multiple...

Michael Causton

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Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Core Business Recovery; Fortis Open Offer to Come Soon

IHH reported 11% YoY and 7% QoQ revenue growth in hospital and healthcare business, driven by higher inpatient admissions. The company has got...

Tina Banerjee

Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

​Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

Michael Causton

TSI to Cull Brands and 20% of Staff and Deliver Real Profits – Finally

​TSI Holdings finally taking real action after operating losses and sales declines, with potential for easy income boost due to multiple...

Michael Causton

Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

TSI Holdings finally taking real action after operating losses and sales declines, with potential for easy income boost due to multiple...