Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This insight will discuss the impact of Buffett's investment in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS).</li>
<li>We believe that Buffett's sizeable investment in TSMC is likely to have a positive impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.</li>
<li>This would be similar to how Buffett's investment in the Japanese trading companies which has had a positive impact on the major Korean trading companies. </li>
</ul>


This insight will discuss the impact of Buffett's investment in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS).
We believe that Buffett's sizeable investment in TSMC is likely to have a positive impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
This would be similar to how Buffett's investment in the Japanese trading companies which has had a positive impact on the major Korean trading companies. 


Buffett's Investment in TSMC - Impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a>, subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.</li>
<li>Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That's insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR's share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>GEAR's jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. </li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.
Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That's insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR's share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.
GEAR's jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family's Low-Balled Offer

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> on 1 November reported its results for H1 2022. H1 Revenue +37.1%yoy, OP+27.2%yoy, NP+33.2%yoy to ¥539bn. Full-year NP forecast +22.5% to ¥980bn.</li>
<li>Mitsui raised its dividend forecast (previously scheduled to rise from ¥105/share to ¥120/share) to ¥130/share and announced a ¥140bn buyback, adding to the ¥100bn announced in May completed in September.</li>
<li>The first ¥58.6bn was done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Now there is another ¥79.4bn to go. There's also a fair bit of index selling the next 6mos.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) on 1 November reported its results for H1 2022. H1 Revenue +37.1%yoy, OP+27.2%yoy, NP+33.2%yoy to ¥539bn. Full-year NP forecast +22.5% to ¥980bn.
Mitsui raised its dividend forecast (previously scheduled to rise from ¥105/share to ¥120/share) to ¥130/share and announced a ¥140bn buyback, adding to the ¥100bn announced in May completed in September.
The first ¥58.6bn was done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Now there is another ¥79.4bn to go. There's also a fair bit of index selling the next 6mos.


Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback - Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling

<ul>
<li>In April, a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/renault-is-said-to-explore-nissan-stake-sale-to-support-ev-shift" target="_blank" rel="noopener">story</a> said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault SA (RNO FP)</a> might sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> to support its investment in EVs. They might sell to Nissan, others.</li>
<li>Renault shares popped hard, this two months after CEO Luca de Meo had said Renault might split, investing in and listing its EV business separately.  But since then? Crickets.</li>
<li>Over the weekend, we have news talks are coming to a head. My feeling? The results won't be pretty - a messy agreement which inspires nobody, but probably still works.</li>
</ul>


In April, a Bloomberg story said Renault SA (RNO FP) might sell shares in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to support its investment in EVs. They might sell to Nissan, others.
Renault shares popped hard, this two months after CEO Luca de Meo had said Renault might split, investing in and listing its EV business separately.  But since then? Crickets.
Over the weekend, we have news talks are coming to a head. My feeling? The results won't be pretty - a messy agreement which inspires nobody, but probably still works.


Renault & Nissan - Capital Manoeuvres In the Dark

<ul>
<li>The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.</li>
<li>Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days' ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.</li>
<li>493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. And... Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.
</li>
</ul>


The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.
Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days' ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.
493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. And... Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.



TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Buffett's Investment in TSMC - Impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

This insight will discuss the impact of Buffett's investment in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and...

Douglas Kim

Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family's Low-Balled Offer

Trading at gross spread of 5.1% to the cash terms. I'd still look to enter around here. If, or should, coal prices roll over, you have a hard cash...

David Blennerhassett

Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback - Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling

Mitsui Corp last week announced strong results and upward guidance, especially in energy. Consensus says Mar-23 is the cycle peak. Higher div,...

Travis Lundy

Renault & Nissan - Capital Manoeuvres In the Dark

Renault and Nissan have been dancing around co-investment in Renault's planned EV spinout company for months, and now CEO de Meo has a Nov 8...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows

The annual TOPIX FFW rebalance is larger this year than normal, with the twist that 493 names will now start to be phased out completely.

Travis Lundy

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