Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 3 April mid-day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> announced its <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403ge_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy"</a>, <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403he_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a ¥1 trillion buyback</a>, and its "<a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/about/plan/pdf/2027_250403.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Strategy 2027</a>" Mid-Term Management Plan.</li>
<li>The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.</li>
<li>The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.</li>
</ul>


On 3 April mid-day, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) announced its FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy", a ¥1 trillion buyback, and its "Corporate Strategy 2027" Mid-Term Management Plan.
The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.
The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.


MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).</li>
<li>¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  </li>
<li>As is often the case, Shareholder Structure Matters. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).
¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  
As is often the case, Shareholder Structure Matters. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.


MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

David Blennerhassett

James Hardie Industries Plc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/james-hardie-industries-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10937:1" rel="noopener">James Hardie (JHX AU)</a>'s merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azek-co-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36947:1" rel="noopener">Azek (AZEK US)</a> isn’t inherently a "bad" deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.</li>
<li>The Biden Administration's USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.</li>
<li>The irony is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.</li>
</ul>



James Hardie (JHX AU)'s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a "bad" deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
The Biden Administration's USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
The irony is that CKH (1 HK)'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.


Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.</li>
<li>The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.</li>
</ul>


Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.
Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.
The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.


How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

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MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

Stocks globally hit by Donald Trump's tariffs, MitCorp is a trader, getting hurt. But MitCorp product lines are essentially globally fungible, and...

Travis Lundy

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

​Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...