Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. </li>
<li>However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;</li>
<li>Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.</li>
</ul>


MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. 
However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;
Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.</li>
<li>Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.</li>
<li>JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.</li>
</ul>


KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

<ul>
<li>MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)</li>
<li>LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)</li>
</ul>


MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)
LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

<ul>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)</li>
<li>2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)</li>
</ul>


ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)
ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)
2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

​MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

​Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

​ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.