AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 revenue of $64.73 billion and EPS of $2.95 surpassed expectations of $64.39 billion and $2.93, respectively. Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $28.52 billion but below analysts' $28.68 billion expectation. </li>
<li>Activision acquisition boosted revenue by 3 points but cut EPS by $0.06 due to lower operating income.</li>
<li>While Microsoft's core cloud business slowed, it increased capex significantly. Uncertain GenAI monetization might shift wealth from Microsoft shareholders to Nvidia shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Q2 revenue of $64.73 billion and EPS of $2.95 surpassed expectations of $64.39 billion and $2.93, respectively. Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $28.52 billion but below analysts' $28.68 billion expectation. 
Activision acquisition boosted revenue by 3 points but cut EPS by $0.06 due to lower operating income.
While Microsoft's core cloud business slowed, it increased capex significantly. Uncertain GenAI monetization might shift wealth from Microsoft shareholders to Nvidia shareholders.


Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY; 4QFY23: +8% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus, thanks to better-than-expected revenue generation from more personal computing (MPC) segment, which offsets the slightly lowerthan-expected intelligent cloud (IC) revenue due to slightly slower-thanexpected growth in a few European regions on non-AI consumption; quarterly net income was up 9.7% YoY to US$22.0bn, also in line with consensus estimates.</li><li>For the full year, total revenue reached US$245.1bn, up 16% YoY, and net income was RMB88.1bn, up 22% YoY.</li><li>Management highlighted that AI-related cloud services demand remained higher than Microsoft’s capacity, and it expects an increase in capex for FY25 compared to that in FY24. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY; 4QFY23: +8% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus, thanks to better-than-expected revenue generation from more personal computing (MPC) segment, which offsets the slightly lowerthan-expected intelligent cloud (IC) revenue due to slightly slower-thanexpected growth in a few European regions on non-AI consumption; quarterly net income was up 9.7% YoY to US$22.0bn, also in line with consensus estimates.For the full year, total revenue reached US$245.1bn, up 16% YoY, and net income was RMB88.1bn, up 22% YoY.Management highlighted that AI-related cloud services demand remained higher than Microsoft’s capacity, and it expects an increase in capex for FY25 compared to that in FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

<ul>
<li>Azure Revenue Growth: Microsoft’s Azure revenue soared 21% YoY to $26.7B in Q3 2024, driven by advanced AI capabilities and increased enterprise adoption.</li>
<li>AI &amp; Personal Computing: AI-driven Copilot+ PCs and hybrid AI solutions are reshaping the market, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to rise from 19% in 2024 to 60% by 2027.</li>
<li>Gaming + Activision: The $68.7B Activision acquisition boosted gaming revenue by 51% YoY, with Game Pass subscribers exceeding 30M and expanding Microsoft's position in cloud gaming.</li>
</ul>


Azure Revenue Growth: Microsoft’s Azure revenue soared 21% YoY to $26.7B in Q3 2024, driven by advanced AI capabilities and increased enterprise adoption.
AI &amp; Personal Computing: AI-driven Copilot+ PCs and hybrid AI solutions are reshaping the market, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to rise from 19% in 2024 to 60% by 2027.
Gaming + Activision: The $68.7B Activision acquisition boosted gaming revenue by 51% YoY, with Game Pass subscribers exceeding 30M and expanding Microsoft's position in cloud gaming.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] Microsoft Flying High on Tailwinds from Azure Surge, AI Leap & Gaming Boost

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

Microsoft reported $64.73B in Q2 revenue, exceeding expectations. Annual revenue hit $245B, a 15% YoY increase. EPS of $2.95 beat forecasts, yet...

Mint Finance

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY

CMB International

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Microsoft Flying High on Tailwinds from Azure Surge, AI Leap & Gaming Boost

Microsoft's Q2 shows a 21% YoY rise in Azure revenue, 37% upside in gaming, and a 9% EPS increase. Revenue is set to grow 14.5% YoY, driven by AI...

Mint Finance

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

Microsoft reported $64.73B in Q2 revenue, exceeding expectations. Annual revenue hit $245B, a 15% YoY increase. EPS of $2.95 beat forecasts, yet...

Mint Finance

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY

CMB International

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Microsoft Flying High on Tailwinds from Azure Surge, AI Leap & Gaming Boost

Microsoft's Q2 shows a 21% YoY rise in Azure revenue, 37% upside in gaming, and a 9% EPS increase. Revenue is set to grow 14.5% YoY, driven by AI...

Mint Finance

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...