Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.</li>
<li>It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.</li>
<li>I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…</li>
</ul>


The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.
It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.
I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…


Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether this cycle is different from previous cycles and consequently what the future holds for supply, demand and pricing. Furthermore, there are growing concerns that China’s semiconductor ambitions could soon result in the market being flooded with high volumes of low-cost DRAM. In this Insight, we examine the history of DRAM from inception to the present day, in particular looking at how market leadership which began in the US, transitioned first to Japan and then to Korea, with a largely failed attempt by Taiwan in between. We ask whether the conditions that allowed these leadership transitions to occur in the past could once again play out in favour of China’s determination to grow its indigenous semiconductor industry.

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether this cycle is different from previous cycles and consequently what the future holds for supply, demand and pricing. Furthermore, there are growing concerns that China’s semiconductor ambitions could soon result in the market being flooded with high volumes of low-cost DRAM. In this Insight, we examine the history of DRAM from inception to the present day, in particular looking at how market leadership which began in the US, transitioned first to Japan and then to Korea, with a largely failed attempt by Taiwan in between. We ask whether the conditions that allowed these leadership transitions to occur in the past could once again play out in favour of China’s determination to grow its indigenous semiconductor industry.  

Learnings From The History Of Memory Part 1 - China's DRAM Dreams

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.

On Oct. 2'nd 2017, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $35.0 billion for the month of August, an increase of 23.9% compared to last August's total of $28.2 billion and 4.0% more than the July 2017 total of $33.6 billion. According to John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO,  “Sales in August increased across the board, with every major regional market and semiconductor product category posting gains on a month-to-month and…

On Oct. 2'nd 2017, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $35.0 billion for the month of August, an increase of 23.9% compared to last August's total of $28.2 billion and 4.0% more than the July 2017 total of $33.6 billion. According to John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO,  “Sales in August increased across the board, with every major regional market and semiconductor product category posting gains on a month-to-month and…

Monthly Semiconductor Sales Reach $35 Billion Globally for First Time in August

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>What memory module vendors said?</h2>After a recent check with memory module vendors, we have concluded that we might be wrong or too conservative on memory contract price (especially wrong on DRAM) in 4Q17. We thus see 4Q17 sales growth of 5-10% q/q likely for most of the DRAM plus NAND vendors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16955" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1">SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13382" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1">Micron Technology Inc (MU US)</a> (Micron earlier guided 4Q17 sales growth of -1% to 6% q/q in our report "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/micron-will-the-recovery-ever-reach-the-end" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13939">Micron - Will the Recovery</a>…

What memory module vendors said?After a recent check with memory module vendors, we have concluded that we might be wrong or too conservative on memory contract price (especially wrong on DRAM) in 4Q17. We thus see 4Q17 sales growth of 5-10% q/q likely for most of the DRAM plus NAND vendors like Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS), SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS), and Micron Technology Inc (MU US) (Micron earlier guided 4Q17 sales growth of -1% to 6% q/q in our report "Micron - Will the Recovery…

Memory Channel Check Suggested We Might Be Wrong Earlier

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

Learnings From The History Of Memory Part 1 - China's DRAM Dreams

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether...

William Keating

Semiconductor Industry Trends

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM...

CM Research

Monthly Semiconductor Sales Reach $35 Billion Globally for First Time in August

On Oct. 2'nd 2017, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $35.0 billion for the...

William Keating

Memory Channel Check Suggested We Might Be Wrong Earlier

What memory module vendors said?After a recent check with memory module vendors, we have concluded that we might be wrong or too conservative on...

Andrew Lu

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