Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28</li>
<li>Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.</li>
<li>Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a "recovery" year.</li>
</ul>


Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a "recovery" year.


Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Relative Value Trade in Micron Has Worked Since Our Last Piece; Results Blow Away Expectations</li>
<li>Memory Pricing Improvement Continues, Management Expects Pricing Increases Through Calendar Year 2024 and 2025</li>
<li>We Remain Structurally Long Memory; Now See Relative Value in SK Hynix</li>
</ul>


Relative Value Trade in Micron Has Worked Since Our Last Piece; Results Blow Away Expectations
Memory Pricing Improvement Continues, Management Expects Pricing Increases Through Calendar Year 2024 and 2025
We Remain Structurally Long Memory; Now See Relative Value in SK Hynix


Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Driven by stronger PC/networking DRAM sales, Micron reports 5% stronger 4Q23 sales, 10-13ppts q/q margin improvement and 34% y/y decline in MOI to 5.2 months;</li>
<li>Micron guides 1Q24 sales growth 8-16% q/q and 38-49% y/y and gross margin of 12%, beating Bloomberg consensus estimates by 6ppts;</li>
<li>Rooms to raise: 1. 1Q24 sales of 18% q/q likely; 2. Turning profits sooner than expected; 3. +Free cash flow in 2024; 4. HBM3E for GH200/H200 to improve mix, margin. </li>
</ul>


Driven by stronger PC/networking DRAM sales, Micron reports 5% stronger 4Q23 sales, 10-13ppts q/q margin improvement and 34% y/y decline in MOI to 5.2 months;
Micron guides 1Q24 sales growth 8-16% q/q and 38-49% y/y and gross margin of 12%, beating Bloomberg consensus estimates by 6ppts;
Rooms to raise: 1. 1Q24 sales of 18% q/q likely; 2. Turning profits sooner than expected; 3. +Free cash flow in 2024; 4. HBM3E for GH200/H200 to improve mix, margin. 


The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

Q1FY24 revenue $4.7 billion, +18% QoQ, +16% YoY. Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, + 13% QoQ. Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still...

William Keating

Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

We expect memory volume growth and rising memory chip prices to continue through both calendar years 2024 & 2025. Our Micron relative trade has...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later

The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later; Rooms to raise: 1. 1Q24 sales of 18% q/q likely; 2. See profits...

Andrew Lu

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

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Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

Q1FY24 revenue $4.7 billion, +18% QoQ, +16% YoY. Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, + 13% QoQ. Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still...

William Keating

Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

We expect memory volume growth and rising memory chip prices to continue through both calendar years 2024 & 2025. Our Micron relative trade has...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later

The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later; Rooms to raise: 1. 1Q24 sales of 18% q/q likely; 2. See profits...

Andrew Lu

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...