Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q2'23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer &amp; PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.</li>
<li>Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better</li>
<li>The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best</li>
</ul>


Q2'23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer &amp; PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.
Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better
The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Elan is positioned to win from a coming PC upgrade cycle, which has been indicated by companies such as Micron, Microsoft, Intel, and Asustek among others.</li>
<li>Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption has been rising and will accelerate with a PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>We've updated our Elan model, we continue to rate the shares Outperform and have a NT$142 target price. Moreover, the stock's past all time remains 65% above current share price.</li>
</ul>


Elan is positioned to win from a coming PC upgrade cycle, which has been indicated by companies such as Micron, Microsoft, Intel, and Asustek among others.
Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption has been rising and will accelerate with a PC upgrade cycle.
We've updated our Elan model, we continue to rate the shares Outperform and have a NT$142 target price. Moreover, the stock's past all time remains 65% above current share price.


Elan Microelectronics: Positioned to Win from PC Upgrade Cycle; Massively Underheld by Institutions

<ul>
<li>Major memory names have fallen with the recent market concerns and only staged a small reboound due to Nvidia's bullish results.</li>
<li>NAND and DRAM price declines have stabilized. Demand for DRAM from servers is expected to exceed that from mobile devices, driven by AI usage.</li>
<li>We see relative value in Micron vs. Nanya Technology and SK Hynix. SK Hynix is ahead of the game for AI, and Nanya offers focused DRAM exposure however.</li>
</ul>


Major memory names have fallen with the recent market concerns and only staged a small reboound due to Nvidia's bullish results.
NAND and DRAM price declines have stabilized. Demand for DRAM from servers is expected to exceed that from mobile devices, driven by AI usage.
We see relative value in Micron vs. Nanya Technology and SK Hynix. SK Hynix is ahead of the game for AI, and Nanya offers focused DRAM exposure however.


Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. </li>
<li>It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.</li>
<li>Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.</li>
</ul>


MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. 
It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.
Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.


United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Q2'23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

Q2'23 saw semi sales, memory, silicon wafer & PC shipments PC with modest QoQ growth. Smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut....

William Keating

Elan Microelectronics: Positioned to Win from PC Upgrade Cycle; Massively Underheld by Institutions

Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption and touch usage for PCs has...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron

NAND and DRAM price declines have stabilized. Demand for DRAM from servers is expected to exceed that from mobile devices, driven by AI usage.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's Next for SiMo?

MaxLinear has called off its planned acquisition of Silicon Motion. Does this indicate future problems for SiMo? Not necessarily.

Jim Handy

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