Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.
Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.
Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

<ul>
<li>Micron's FY4Q23 results beat expectations. The company expects to return to a positive margin by FY2H24, however projected a higher FY1Q24 loss than consensus expected.</li>
<li>As suggested would be the case in our pre-results piece, the company said it sees memory prices bottoming and expects improving pricing and profitability ahead for the industry.</li>
<li>While next quarter's guidance may be weaker than some expected, we believe the key take-away is that Micron is seeing a memory prices bottom.</li>
</ul>


Micron's FY4Q23 results beat expectations. The company expects to return to a positive margin by FY2H24, however projected a higher FY1Q24 loss than consensus expected.
As suggested would be the case in our pre-results piece, the company said it sees memory prices bottoming and expects improving pricing and profitability ahead for the industry.
While next quarter's guidance may be weaker than some expected, we believe the key take-away is that Micron is seeing a memory prices bottom.


Micron Management Calls Memory Price Trough, Improving Pricing & Profitability Ahead

<ul>
<li>Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.</li>
<li>Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.</li>
<li>Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.</li>
</ul>


Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.
Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.
Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel 'AI PC' Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April</li>
<li>This growth is higher than the industry's long-term average 3.9% growth</li>
<li>It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April
This growth is higher than the industry's long-term average 3.9% growth
It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.


SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Management Calls Memory Price Trough, Improving Pricing & Profitability Ahead

Micron's FY4Q23 results beat expectations. The company expects to return to a positive margin by FY2H24, however projected a higher FY1Q24 loss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel 'AI PC' Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

The semiconductor industry seems to be starting another cycle, with revenues increasing for the past four months. This Insight compares past...

Jim Handy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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