Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.</li>
<li>Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.</li>
<li>Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.</li>
</ul>


Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.
Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.
Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.


Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

<ul>
<li>DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.</li>
<li>While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.</li>
</ul>


DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.
While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.
Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.


Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


<ul>
<li>Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.</li>
<li>Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.</li>
</ul>


Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.
Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.
Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.


Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

​Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

​Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

​Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...