Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech and Semi's month-end weakness setting a risk-off tone for Japan to start.</li>
<li>Mag7 all down, although there are a few bright spots AH with Intel and Amazon higher.</li>
<li>Watch Ibiden earnings call for clues if their NVDA business can take over from INTC as its main driver.</li>
</ul>


Tech and Semi's month-end weakness setting a risk-off tone for Japan to start.
Mag7 all down, although there are a few bright spots AH with Intel and Amazon higher.
Watch Ibiden earnings call for clues if their NVDA business can take over from INTC as its main driver.


Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)
BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)
BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> ’s share price has declined 26% over the last five days with the company reporting 3QFY10/2024 earnings on 12th September 2024.</li>
<li>As we expected, top line growth has further slowed down while OPM for the quarter has dropped both QoQ and YoY concerning investors over Timee’s ability to generate sustainable margins.</li>
<li>Timee’s proven business model has attracted Mercari and Sharefull to offer similar services, nevertheless, we would not be too concerned as Timee has the first mover advantage.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has declined 26% over the last five days with the company reporting 3QFY10/2024 earnings on 12th September 2024.
As we expected, top line growth has further slowed down while OPM for the quarter has dropped both QoQ and YoY concerning investors over Timee’s ability to generate sustainable margins.
Timee’s proven business model has attracted Mercari and Sharefull to offer similar services, nevertheless, we would not be too concerned as Timee has the first mover advantage.


Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

Risk-off tone for Japan with tech and semi month-end weakness. Mag7 down although Intel and Amazon higher AH. Watch Ibiden if their NVDA business...

Andrew Jackson

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

Risk-off tone for Japan with tech and semi month-end weakness. Mag7 down although Intel and Amazon higher AH. Watch Ibiden if their NVDA business...

Andrew Jackson

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

​Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Timee: Market Overreacts to Potential Competition and Drop in Margins

​Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown

Timee is down 26% post 3Q earnings which has concerned investors over slowing growth and margins. Mercari and Sharefull are offering similar...

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...