Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Hong Kong Stocks are more excited than the mainland about cutting the Quarantine period from 14 to 7 days.</li><li>The 25th Anniversary of the Hong Kong handover means more stability ahead of celebrations and trading dominated by position squaring.</li><li>Only Xiaomi shows signs of a breakout. It broke the downtrend from August 2021 with the inside days in the last two trading sessions. It looks like it will test the breakout and cover it next week.</li></ul>

Hong Kong Stocks are more excited than the mainland about cutting the Quarantine period from 14 to 7 days.The 25th Anniversary of the Hong Kong handover means more stability ahead of celebrations and trading dominated by position squaring.Only Xiaomi shows signs of a breakout. It broke the downtrend from August 2021 with the inside days in the last two trading sessions. It looks like it will test the breakout and cover it next week.

Hang Seng Index Constituents 30th June 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Tianqi Lithium (TL) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via its H-shares listing. It undertakes mining of lithium ore and manufacturing of lithium concentrate, lithium compounds and derivatives.</li>
<li>TL was the largest producer of mined lithium globally in terms of output in 2020 and ranked third in terms of revenue generated from lithium in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we take about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Tianqi Lithium (TL) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via its H-shares listing. It undertakes mining of lithium ore and manufacturing of lithium concentrate, lithium compounds and derivatives.
TL was the largest producer of mined lithium globally in terms of output in 2020 and ranked third in terms of revenue generated from lithium in 2020.
In this note, we take about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Tianqi Lithium A/H Listing - Large Deal but Its Been Priced to Go

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.</li>
<li>The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.
The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The exposure draft about online drug sales activities on third-party digital healthcare platforms would add uncertainties on JD Health’s business. We analyzed the potential impact and the logic behind.</li>
<li>Keeping both self-run and third-party business is the optimal option because JD Health cannot afford losing either one. The exact impact will have to wait until policy details are released.</li>
<li>As main revenue contributor, there are concerns on JD Pharmacy in terms of profitability and policy risks. Before second growth point emerges, expectation on long-term valuation expansion would be discounted.</li>
</ul>


The exposure draft about online drug sales activities on third-party digital healthcare platforms would add uncertainties on JD Health’s business. We analyzed the potential impact and the logic behind.
Keeping both self-run and third-party business is the optimal option because JD Health cannot afford losing either one. The exact impact will have to wait until policy details are released.
As main revenue contributor, there are concerns on JD Pharmacy in terms of profitability and policy risks. Before second growth point emerges, expectation on long-term valuation expansion would be discounted.


JD Health (6618.HK) - Logic Change Due to the New Policy?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Meituan is starting to show waning upside momentum as it near key resistance at 220/230 (sell or short zone) ahead of a harder pullback cycle that will be choppy initially.</li>
<li>Meituan has outperformed its peer group but due for a pullback. Price and RSI rising wedges are maturing and nearing a bearish inflection point to short (watch poor buy volume).</li>
<li>Tactical rally window in mid July with a better rally cycle slated for August head of a negative September.</li>
</ul>


Meituan is starting to show waning upside momentum as it near key resistance at 220/230 (sell or short zone) ahead of a harder pullback cycle that will be choppy initially.
Meituan has outperformed its peer group but due for a pullback. Price and RSI rising wedges are maturing and nearing a bearish inflection point to short (watch poor buy volume).
Tactical rally window in mid July with a better rally cycle slated for August head of a negative September.


China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Hang Seng Index Constituents 30th June 2022

Mainland opening, but not really. Hong Kong Stocks are more excited than the mainland about cutting the Quarantine period from 14 to 7 days. The...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tianqi Lithium A/H Listing - Large Deal but Its Been Priced to Go

Tianqi Lithium (TL) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via its H-shares listing. In this note, we talk about pricing and run the deal through our...

Sumeet Singh

SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months, which will soon be over.

Sumeet Singh

JD Health (6618.HK) - Logic Change Due to the New Policy?

The policy about online drug sales on third-party digital platforms will add uncertainties on JD Health.Before new growth point emerges,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Meituan Push into Sell Resistance

Meituan is starting to show waning upside momentum as it near key resistance at 220/230 (sell or short zone) ahead of a harder pullback cycle that...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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