China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD/ AAPL/ 1810.HK: Apple launches new iPhones in China (-/-/+)</li>
<li>LI/NIO:Huawei AITO New M7 was launched today, limiting impact on LI auto(-)</li>
<li>Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: Thailand announced to implement a 5-months visa-free policy for Chinese tourists（+/+/-）</li>
</ul>


JD/ AAPL/ 1810.HK: Apple launches new iPhones in China (-/-/+)
LI/NIO:Huawei AITO New M7 was launched today, limiting impact on LI auto(-)
Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: Thailand announced to implement a 5-months visa-free policy for Chinese tourists（+/+/-）


China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free

<ul>
<li>(-) Tencent's new game "SYNCED" has yielded mediocre results, leaving players disappointed.</li>
<li>3690.HK/002352.SH/DADA: Douyin expands food delivery service cities and introduces regional agents (-/+/+)</li>
<li>APPL/UBI.PA/CCOEY/HK700/NTES: The photorealistic rendering technology of the A17 Pro biochip could potentially usher smartphone gaming into the next generation. (+)</li>
</ul>


(-) Tencent's new game "SYNCED" has yielded mediocre results, leaving players disappointed.
3690.HK/002352.SH/DADA: Douyin expands food delivery service cities and introduces regional agents (-/+/+)
APPL/UBI.PA/CCOEY/HK700/NTES: The photorealistic rendering technology of the A17 Pro biochip could potentially usher smartphone gaming into the next generation. (+)


China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-"SYNCED"/Douyin Expands Food Delivery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we look at its recent updates.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we look at its recent updates.


SF Holdings A/H Listing - Recent Filing and Other Updates

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> is a potential deletion in December and that could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> being added to the index.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.</li>
<li>There is a very small impact on the fair value of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is a potential deletion in December and that could result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) being added to the index.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.
There is a very small impact on the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The street’s expectations for Meituan’s bottom line have gone too pessimistic for 2023 while in the meantime too optimistic for 2024 and beyond.</li>
<li>Besides the macro weakness, we see the company’s growth increasingly be constrained by the business model itself, resulting in only 14% CAGR for bottom line over 2023-25 by our calculation.</li>
<li>We take investors’ indifference to Meituan’s strong bottom line growth for 2023 as a signal they are discounting the sharp deceleration kicking in from 2024. Stay neutral.</li>
</ul>


The street’s expectations for Meituan’s bottom line have gone too pessimistic for 2023 while in the meantime too optimistic for 2024 and beyond.
Besides the macro weakness, we see the company’s growth increasingly be constrained by the business model itself, resulting in only 14% CAGR for bottom line over 2023-25 by our calculation.
We take investors’ indifference to Meituan’s strong bottom line growth for 2023 as a signal they are discounting the sharp deceleration kicking in from 2024. Stay neutral.


Meituan (3690 HK): Strong Bottom Line Growth Will Prove to Be Short-Lived

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free

JD/ AAPL/ 1810.HK: Apple launches new iPhones in China;LI/NIO:Huawei AITO New M7 was launched today;Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: Thailand announced to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-"SYNCED"/Douyin Expands Food Delivery

Tencent's new game "SYNCED" has yielded mediocre results. 3690.HK/002352.SH/DADA: Douyin expands food delivery service; APPL/UBI.PA/CCOEY/HK700...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holdings A/H Listing - Recent Filing and Other Updates

SF Holding, China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the recent...

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

China Unicom could replace Zhongsheng Holdings in the HSCEI in Dec. Passives need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks. There will be the usual...

Brian Freitas

Meituan (3690 HK): Strong Bottom Line Growth Will Prove to Be Short-Lived

While we believe the street underestimate Meituan's strong profit outlook for 2023, investors are discounting sharp deceleration to kick in from 2024.

Eric Chen

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