Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong</li><li>Taiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan</li><li>Flood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing</li></ul>

SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong KongTaiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over TaiwanFlood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.</li><li>The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.</li><li>Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.</li></ul>

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>  reported 2Q2022 results today. Revenue increased 3.1% YoY to RMB134.0bn (vs consensus RMB134.6bn) while reported OP for the quarter decreased 42.7% YoY to RMB30.bn (vs consensus RMB36.3bn).</li>
<li>Excluding interest income and gains, adjusted OP decreased 21.2% YoY to RMB23.7bn driven by drop in GPM across all three business segments.</li>
<li>Tencent also mentioned that news article regarding a possible stake sale of Meituan is inaccurate.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK)  reported 2Q2022 results today. Revenue increased 3.1% YoY to RMB134.0bn (vs consensus RMB134.6bn) while reported OP for the quarter decreased 42.7% YoY to RMB30.bn (vs consensus RMB36.3bn).
Excluding interest income and gains, adjusted OP decreased 21.2% YoY to RMB23.7bn driven by drop in GPM across all three business segments.
Tencent also mentioned that news article regarding a possible stake sale of Meituan is inaccurate.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance).</li>
<li>Dual top at 210 induced a turn well under trendline resistance. Break of bear wedge support confirmed the macro sell signal.</li>
<li>Below 166 targets 140 where a stall in the decline/bounce is due (resistance near 160-66) but expected to give way for a test on the 110 low zone.</li>
</ul>


June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance).
Dual top at 210 induced a turn well under trendline resistance. Break of bear wedge support confirmed the macro sell signal.
Below 166 targets 140 where a stall in the decline/bounce is due (resistance near 160-66) but expected to give way for a test on the 110 low zone.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s reported sale of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> stake led to a selloff on Meituan and on other companies that Tencent has invested in.</li>
<li>There are 10 listed companies where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s holding is over US$1bn. Some stakes are more likely to be sold than others. </li>
<li>A complete stake sale will benefit some companies more than others since they are part of a wider array of indices and that will bring in passive flow.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK)'s reported sale of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake led to a selloff on Meituan and on other companies that Tencent has invested in.
There are 10 listed companies where Tencent (700 HK)'s holding is over US$1bn. Some stakes are more likely to be sold than others. 
A complete stake sale will benefit some companies more than others since they are part of a wider array of indices and that will bring in passive flow.


Tencent's Potential Sale of Meituan Stake - Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong. Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan

Caixin Global

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tencent 2Q: Earnings Weaken Further

2Q2022 earnings fell below consensus as all three segments faced declines. Fintech growth was less than 1% due to Covid where previous outbreak in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance). Break of bear wedge support...

Thomas Schroeder

Tencent's Potential Sale of Meituan Stake - Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications

A Reuters report that Tencent intended to sell its stake in Meituan led to a selloff across Tencent's investee companies. The impact of passive...

Brian Freitas

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