Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  reported 1QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday which saw revenues growing 30.8% YoY while reported operating profit grew 38.2%YoY during the quarter (excl. the impact from stake disposal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>). M3’s operating profits during 1QFY03/2022 benefitted from the IPO of Medlive Technology on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2021 with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of total revenues in 1Q and 36.9% of operating profits excl. Medlive IPO impact).</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/968/original/image_968611860161627537893439.png?1627537894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220968"></figure><p><em>Source: Company disclosures</em></p><p>The reported revenue was 3.8% higher than consensus estimates while reported operating profits beat consensus by a huge margin of about 50%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/969/original/image_180657963171627537913658.png?1627537914" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220969"></figure>

M3 Inc (2413 JP)  reported 1QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday which saw revenues growing 30.8% YoY while reported operating profit grew 38.2%YoY during the quarter (excl. the impact from stake disposal of Medlive Technology (2192 HK)). M3’s operating profits during 1QFY03/2022 benefitted from the IPO of Medlive Technology on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2021 with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of total revenues in 1Q and 36.9% of operating profits excl. Medlive IPO impact).Source: Company disclosuresThe reported revenue was 3.8% higher than consensus estimates while reported operating profits beat consensus by a huge margin of about 50%.

M3: Medlive IPO Helped OP Surge in 1Q; Expect Earnings Weakness to Come Through in 2H

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Dingdang Health Technology Gro / Equity Capital Markets

<p>On June 22, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdang-health-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33528:1" rel="noopener">Dingdang Health Technology Group (DDH HK)</a> submitted the prospectus to HKEX and officially started its IPO process. If all goes well, Dingdang would become another listed digital healthcare service provider after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>. However, in the face of fierce competition, Dingdang's future looks challenging. This insight mainly analyzed the concerns of the Company that worth investors’ attention.</p>

On June 22, 2021, Dingdang Health Technology Group (DDH HK) submitted the prospectus to HKEX and officially started its IPO process. If all goes well, Dingdang would become another listed digital healthcare service provider after Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK). However, in the face of fierce competition, Dingdang's future looks challenging. This insight mainly analyzed the concerns of the Company that worth investors’ attention.

Pre-IPO Dingdang Health Technology - The Future Looks Challenging

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> operates the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates a majority of its revenues through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies in China.</p><p>Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.2 per share, at the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the above price, Medlive raised gross proceeds of HK$4.2bn (US$543m) at a market capitalisation of HK$18.8bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$14.8bn.</p><p>In our previous insight, we discussed our forecasts and valuation and our DCF based valuation offered price per share of HK$33.05 per share, which is 21% higher than the company’s IPO price of HK$27.2 per share.</p>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) operates the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates a majority of its revenues through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies in China.Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.2 per share, at the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the above price, Medlive raised gross proceeds of HK$4.2bn (US$543m) at a market capitalisation of HK$18.8bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$14.8bn.In our previous insight, we discussed our forecasts and valuation and our DCF based valuation offered price per share of HK$33.05 per share, which is 21% higher than the company’s IPO price of HK$27.2 per share.

Medlive IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3006198/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%913%E9%9A%BB%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E3%80%80%E9%86%AB%E8%84%88%E9%80%9A2192%E5%8D%871%E6%88%90%E3%80%81%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA1350%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closed 10% up at HK$29.90</a> in the Futu securities grey market. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53879" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.</p></div></div></div>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu securities grey market. In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Medlive raised HKD 4,001 million (USD 515m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, July 15th.</p>
<p>In our previous note, we discussed that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. We also think that it has a big upside for both existing businesses and new business.</p>
<p>In this note, we look at the updates since our last note. The demand for the deal is strong and we expect a strong debut.</p>

Medlive raised HKD 4,001 million (USD 515m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, July 15th.
In our previous note, we discussed that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. We also think that it has a big upside for both existing businesses and new business.
In this note, we look at the updates since our last note. The demand for the deal is strong and we expect a strong debut.

Medlive (医脉通) IPO Trading: Expect a Strong Debut

Hong Kong

Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. operates as an online professional physician platform. The Company provides medical information, clinical guidelines, medical conferences, case readings, diagnosis and treatment knowledge base, and other medical information. Medlive Technology offers services in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Medlive Technology (2192 HK)

M3: Medlive IPO Helped OP Surge in 1Q; Expect Earnings Weakness to Come Through in 2H

M3’s operating profits during 1Q benefitted from the IPO of Medlive on HKEx with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of revenues and 36.9% of...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Pre-IPO Dingdang Health Technology - The Future Looks Challenging

The article mainly analyzed the concerns that worth the investors' attention about Dingdang Health in terms of fierce competition, financial...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Medlive IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Both our DCF-based valuation and relative valuation suggest that the company’s IPO is attractively priced and there is more room for share price to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Medlive Technology IPO: Trading Debut

Medlive will commence trading on 15 July. Medlive priced at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu grey market. Our DCF sensitivity...

Arun George

Medlive (医脉通) IPO Trading: Expect a Strong Debut

We look at the updates of Medlive IPO since our last note. The demands for the deal are strong and we expect a strong debut with reference to...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)