Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p><p>Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.</p><p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> as potential inclusions in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</p><p>There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.</p><p>Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.We see Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) as potential inclusions in the index replacing Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU) and Perenti Global (PRN AU).Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is G8 Education (GEM AU).There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p></div><div>
<p>The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.</p>
<p>Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.</p>
<p>Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</p>
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.</p><p>There are 5 additions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-industrial-fund" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1">Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/megaport-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24310:1">Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1">Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperor-energy-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9522:1">Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>.</p><p>There are 6 deletions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hub24-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12336:1">Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jumbo-interactive-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11495:1">Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.</p><p>With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.There are 5 additions in the review: Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU), Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU), Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU), Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU) and Perseus Mining (PRU AU).There are 6 deletions in the review: Estia Health (EHE AU), Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU), Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We maintain our AUD 1.25 fair value estimate for no-moat Mayne Pharma given the recent update by management on the US generic industry trading environment. This follows the unprecedented level of price deflation in second-half fiscal 2017, which resulted in the disappointing performance of the US generic products division and prompted our move to very high fair value uncertainty.</p><p>Although acknowledging ongoing pressure, and reiterating soft 1H18 sales in the recent update, management did not provide further guidance. As such, we are not changing our fiscal 2018 forecast revenue of AUD 581 million at this point. Shares are currently trading at a significant discount to our fair value estimate, however our very high uncertainty rating remains intact. From a pipeline perspective, Mayne is in good shape with around 35 generic pipeline products targeting markets with total annual sales of more than USD 5 billion. Seventeen of these products are pending approval at the US Food and Drug Administration, including a potential first to market opportunity. We think the steady flow of new products bodes well for diversification of the product portfolio away from the problematic TEVA assets and stabilization of the US generic business. We think increasing diversification should offset increasing competition in select markets. We also believe generic price deflation will make currently contestable niche markets less attractive and eventually lead to an exit of industry players leading to more sustainable pricing environments for the remaining participants. As such, we expect Mayne to be amongst the remaining players.</p><p>Importantly, Mayne’s capital structure remains healthy, with cash on hand of AUD 63 million versus debt of AUD 340 million. Gearing remains relatively low, with net debt/EBITDA of around 1.30, together with an undrawn debt facility of USD 155 million, with the first repayment in that facility not due until fiscal 2021. As such, and in light several cost saving initiatives, we remain comfortable with Mayne’s ability to weather the currently difficult trading environment.</p><p><em>Analyst: Chris Kallos, CFA</em></p>

We maintain our AUD 1.25 fair value estimate for no-moat Mayne Pharma given the recent update by management on the US generic industry trading environment. This follows the unprecedented level of price deflation in second-half fiscal 2017, which resulted in the disappointing performance of the US generic products division and prompted our move to very high fair value uncertainty.Although acknowledging ongoing pressure, and reiterating soft 1H18 sales in the recent update, management did not provide further guidance. As such, we are not changing our fiscal 2018 forecast revenue of AUD 581 million at this point. Shares are currently trading at a significant discount to our fair value estimate, however our very high uncertainty rating remains intact. From a pipeline perspective, Mayne is in good shape with around 35 generic pipeline products targeting markets with total annual sales of more than USD 5 billion. Seventeen of these products are pending approval at the US Food and Drug Administration, including a potential first to market opportunity. We think the steady flow of new products bodes well for diversification of the product portfolio away from the problematic TEVA assets and stabilization of the US generic business. We think increasing diversification should offset increasing competition in select markets. We also believe generic price deflation will make currently contestable niche markets less attractive and eventually lead to an exit of industry players leading to more sustainable pricing environments for the remaining participants. As such, we expect Mayne to be amongst the remaining players.Importantly, Mayne’s capital structure remains healthy, with cash on hand of AUD 63 million versus debt of AUD 340 million. Gearing remains relatively low, with net debt/EBITDA of around 1.30, together with an undrawn debt facility of USD 155 million, with the first repayment in that facility not due until fiscal 2021. As such, and in light several cost saving initiatives, we remain comfortable with Mayne’s ability to weather the currently difficult trading environment.Analyst: Chris Kallos, CFA

Mayne Well Positioned to Weather the Storm; Maintaining FVE and Very High Uncertainty

Australia

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

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Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

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Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

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Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June...

Brian Freitas

Mayne Well Positioned to Weather the Storm; Maintaining FVE and Very High Uncertainty

We maintain our AUD 1.25 fair value estimate for no-moat Mayne Pharma given the recent update by management on the US generic industry trading...

Morningstar, Inc.

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