Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the past 2 years, customers cut back drastically on shopping and travel. Many worked in home offices in sweatpants and t-shirts.  </li>
<li>But now, people are vaccinated, and lockdowns have lifted. Even Japan’s borders are starting to spring open.  </li>
<li>Consumers are looking for ways to make up for lost time – we highlight 3 beneficiaries of revenge shopping. </li>
</ul>


Over the past 2 years, customers cut back drastically on shopping and travel. Many worked in home offices in sweatpants and t-shirts.  
But now, people are vaccinated, and lockdowns have lifted. Even Japan’s borders are starting to spring open.  
Consumers are looking for ways to make up for lost time – we highlight 3 beneficiaries of revenge shopping. 


Japan Retail | 3 Stocks to Buy for Revenge Shopping

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250411005584/en/Orbis-Statement-on-Proposed-Merger-Between-Tsuruha-and-Welcia-and-Proposed-Tender-Offer-by-Aeon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intends to vote NO</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   


Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Japan

MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. operates drug store chains. The Company retails medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care products, and other products. MatsukiyoCocokara & also operates supermarkets and home centers.

Price Gauge
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MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail | 3 Stocks to Buy for Revenge Shopping

We pick three retail stocks - that are trading at a discount to pre-covid levels - and benefit from revenge shopping: Matsukiyo, J Front and Pan...

Mark Chadwick

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail | 3 Stocks to Buy for Revenge Shopping

We pick three retail stocks - that are trading at a discount to pre-covid levels - and benefit from revenge shopping: Matsukiyo, J Front and Pan...

Mark Chadwick

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

Unsurprisingly, Orbis has opposed the transactions, as the terms of the share exchange and partial offer are unfavourable for Tsuruha shareholders....

Arun George

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research