Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.</li><li>The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.</li><li>We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.</li></ul>

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.</li><li>A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.</span></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

United States

Materials Select Sector SPDR Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Materials Select Sector Index.  The Index includes companies from the following industries: chemicals, construction materials, containers and packaging.

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Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB US)

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch. A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of...

Steno Research

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