Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.</li><li>Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.</li><li>Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.</li></ul>

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BTC's phenomenal +57% surge since September is propelled by key forces—ETF euphoria, a robust "Risk On" asset bull run, regulatory clarity, and the imminent BTC halving.</li>
<li>While BTC maintains resilience, mining firms, exemplified by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), have seen a 30% underperformance over the last 3 months.</li>
<li>Mining firms that have scaled up hash-rate over the past year and built up BTC holdings to support outperformance to BTC. However, ample cash reserves are vital.</li>
</ul>


BTC's phenomenal +57% surge since September is propelled by key forces—ETF euphoria, a robust "Risk On" asset bull run, regulatory clarity, and the imminent BTC halving.
While BTC maintains resilience, mining firms, exemplified by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), have seen a 30% underperformance over the last 3 months.
Mining firms that have scaled up hash-rate over the past year and built up BTC holdings to support outperformance to BTC. However, ample cash reserves are vital.


In A Bitcoin Frenzy; Long BTC Miners & Short BTC

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Continued central bank buying, geopolitics, and de-dollarisation concerns have kept gold prices buoyant over the last two years.</li>
<li>Gold has been at record high in non-USD terms for some time now. On 4th Nov, it rallied to an all-time high of USD 2,135 per troy ounce.</li>
<li>Not just gold, but digital gold ("bitcoin") also rallied to its highest in 20 months as excitement of rate cuts captured the zeitgeist of investors.</li>
</ul>


Continued central bank buying, geopolitics, and de-dollarisation concerns have kept gold prices buoyant over the last two years.
Gold has been at record high in non-USD terms for some time now. On 4th Nov, it rallied to an all-time high of USD 2,135 per troy ounce.
Not just gold, but digital gold ("bitcoin") also rallied to its highest in 20 months as excitement of rate cuts captured the zeitgeist of investors.


Gold Soars to Record High on Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. </li>
<li>Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. 
Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. 
Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

United States

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as a digital asset technology company. The Company mines cryptocurrencies, with a focuses on the blockchain ecosystem and the generation of digital assets. Marathon Digital Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

In A Bitcoin Frenzy; Long BTC Miners & Short BTC

BTC's recent surge is driven by ETF excitement, a bullish market, regulatory clarity, and the upcoming halving. Mining firms have underperformed...

Mint Finance

Gold Soars to Record High on Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Gold prices are inversely related to interest rates. Gold is a non-yielding asset. When rates rise, deposits are attractive relative to gold. With...

Mint Finance

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

We believe the crypto contagion is finally over, and a rally in Bitcoin may restore investor confidence after 12 months of a bear market

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

In A Bitcoin Frenzy; Long BTC Miners & Short BTC

​BTC's recent surge is driven by ETF excitement, a bullish market, regulatory clarity, and the upcoming halving. Mining firms have underperformed...

Mint Finance

Gold Soars to Record High on Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Gold prices are inversely related to interest rates. Gold is a non-yielding asset. When rates rise, deposits are attractive relative to gold. With...

Mint Finance

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

We believe the crypto contagion is finally over, and a rally in Bitcoin may restore investor confidence after 12 months of a bear market

Andrei Zakharov

BTC's recent surge is driven by ETF excitement, a bullish market, regulatory clarity, and the upcoming halving. Mining firms have underperformed...