Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.</li><li>Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.</li><li>With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.</li></ul>

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul><li>There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.</li><li>The currency has become more acutely weak.</li><li>Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.</li><li>Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.</li></ul>

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.The currency has become more acutely weak.Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.

Poor loan processing caused high NPLs, and this is now changing. &nbsp;As NPLs move from 4.5% of loans toward 3.0%, investors will be rewarded. At 1.2x PB, BJBR is cheap vs peers, and with a high 10% dividend yield.

Poor loan processing caused high NPLs, and this is now changing. &nbsp;As NPLs move from 4.5% of loans toward 3.0%, investors will be rewarded. At 1.2x PB, BJBR is cheap vs peers, and with a high 10% dividend yield.

A cheap Indonesian bank, with a 10% yield, where NPLs will decline fast. 

Indonesia

PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk provides consumer financing services.

PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk provides financial services such as leasing, consumer financing, and factoring.

PT Clipan Finance Indonesia Tbk provides leasing and consumer financing services.

PT Wahana Ottomitra Multiartha Tbk provides consumer financing services.

PT Indomobil Multi Jasa, Tbk. operates as a holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries, provides motor vehicle and heavy equipment financing, transportation, and car rental services. Indomobil Multi Jasa serves clients in Indonesia.

PT Danasupra Erapacific Tbk provides financial services such as consumer financing, leasing, and factoring.

PT Buana Finance Tbk provides financial services such as leasing, factoring, and consumer financing.

PT Tifa Finance Tbk offers financial services.  The Company offers lease financing, consumer loans, and factoring services.

PT Batavia Prosperindo Finance Tbk offers vehicle purchase financing services.

PT Radana Bhaskara Finance Tbk provides financing for motorcycles and cars. The Company has been operating since 2005 and is based in Java and Sumatra, Indonesia.

FleetPartners Group Limited provides vehicle fleet leasing, fleet management, and diversified financial services. The Company offers consumers and businesses access to funding solutions including fleet leasing, vehicle sales, commercial equipment finance, and consumer motor vehicle finance. FleetPartners Group serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

RCE Capital Berhad is an investment holding company which provides management services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company invests in property, provides information technology, financial administrative, loan financing, broadcasting and advertising media services. RCE Capital is also involved in general trading, licensing and merchandising activities.

EZCORP, Inc. owns and operates pawn shops that serve as sources for consumer credit and retail previously-owned merchandise.  The Company operates in the United States.

Green Dot Corporation operates as a bank holding company that offers personal banking products and services. The Company provides prepaid debit card products, prepaid card reloading services, and mobile banking accounts. Green Dot offers its products and services to consumers across the United States via retail, online, and digital distribution channels.

Hoist Finance AB operates as a debt restructuring partner to international banks. The Company offers a range of solutions for the acquisition and management of non-performing unsecured consumer loans.

Equitas Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services such as lending, housing finance, vehicle loan, and borrowing services. Equitas Holdings conducts its business in India.

Yixin Group Limited offers an online automobile finance transaction platform. The Company provides loan facilitation, car rental, and other services. Yixin Group operates in China.

Premium Group Co., Ltd. offers financing service. The Company provides automotive loans, credit and debit, consumer microlending, and other services. Premium Group provides its services throughout Japan.

Ratchthani Leasing Public Company Limited provides hire-purchase and leasing services for used automobiles to businesses and retail consumers in Thailand.

Xi'An Hongsheng Technology Co ltd distributes, designs and develops memory, home entertainment and personal computer products. The Company's products include RAM (Random Access Memory) products, DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) players, televisions, as well as personal computers and peripheral products.

PT Mandala Multifinance Tbk provides consumer finance services.  The Company leases motorcycles.

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Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ)

Marketnomix Insights : Indonesia

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016. Recent...

Rajan Govil

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Indonesia Concerns in Focus

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia. The currency has become more acutely weak. Bad loans are rising for all the major banks...

Daniel Tabbush

A cheap Indonesian bank, with a 10% yield, where NPLs will decline fast.

Poor loan processing caused high NPLs, and this is now changing. As NPLs move from 4.5% of loans toward 3.0%, investors will be rewarded. At 1.2x...

Daniel Tabbush

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