New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

<ul><li>The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).</li><li>Each offers attractive investment attributes with strong track records of execution.</li><li>Structurally, we like all three companies, with each well positioned for continued growth and favourable returns. </li></ul>

The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).Each offers attractive investment attributes with strong track records of execution.Structurally, we like all three companies, with each well positioned for continued growth and favourable returns. 

Quality Growth Stocks: F&P Healthcare, Mainfreight and EBOS Group - The Creme De La Creme

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.</li><li>Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".</li><li>We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. </li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. 

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Quality Growth Stocks: F&P Healthcare, Mainfreight and EBOS Group - The Creme De La Creme

The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

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