New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.</li><li>Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".</li><li>We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. </li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. 

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.</li><li>A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.</li><li>Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.</li><li>The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths.</li><li> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Truth #1:</span> MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.</li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths. Truth #1: MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div id="m_7505193840733105993iubdj-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2"><ul><li>The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.</li><li>The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.</li><li>In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. </li></ul></div>

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. 

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Bruising

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared. The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Freight Expectations

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

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