Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.</li>
<li>That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company's Advisor's DCF Range, I expect a bump. </li>
<li>Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn't have the shares to close. I expect they won't unless they bump a lot. </li>
</ul>


Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.
That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company's Advisor's DCF Range, I expect a bump. 
Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn't have the shares to close. I expect they won't unless they bump a lot. 


Macromill (3978 JP) - Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk

<ul>
<li>Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100UYE4.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-12-17T08%3A17%3A44Z&amp;se=2029-12-17T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=8CF7Al7qa3iep7%2Be%2FYKZuyvDIrkbe2s%2B3M%2FLLvosDIs%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filed</a> a new LSR on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.</li>
<li>That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It's big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement. </li>
<li>And this was warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cvc-offers-1150-for-macromill-3978-wrong-price-wrong-register-expect-activism-or-an-overbid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166322" rel="noopener">CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid</a>. Shareholder structure REALLY matters. </li>
</ul>


Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management filed a new LSR on Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.
That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It's big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement. 
And this was warned in CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid. Shareholder structure REALLY matters. 


Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

<ul>
<li>Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>. It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. </li>
<li>The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. </li>
<li>Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.</li>
</ul>


Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.


CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Japan

MACROMILL, INC. is a market research company utilizing Internet System. The Company collects and analyzes data and prepares research reports. MACROMILL also provides digital marketing solutions.

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Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)

Macromill (3978 JP) - Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk

Today, Macromill bidder CVC extended the TOB til 17 January. I expect that is not enough. We have the extension. Next we need the bump. But the...

Travis Lundy

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

Activist Oasis has added themselves to the mix. The language in the new 7.1% filing is interesting. Noteworthy: none of the large fundamental long...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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