Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.</li>
<li>Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.</li>
</ul>


Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.
Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.
Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Thursday 29 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. </li>
<li>In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.</li>
<li>This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. </li>
</ul>


On Thursday 29 August, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. 
In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.
This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. 


Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-chouzai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5873:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP)</a> is an integrated healthcare company whose core business is the operation of dispensing pharmacies.</li>
<li>In FY03/23, Nihon Chouzai reported sales of JPY313.3bn, operating profit of JPY7.6bn, recurring profit of JPY7.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.5bn.</li>
<li>Nihon Chouzai Co., Ltd. announced the retirement of treasury shares.</li>
</ul>



Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP) is an integrated healthcare company whose core business is the operation of dispensing pharmacies.
In FY03/23, Nihon Chouzai reported sales of JPY313.3bn, operating profit of JPY7.6bn, recurring profit of JPY7.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.5bn.
Nihon Chouzai Co., Ltd. announced the retirement of treasury shares.


David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

<ul>
<li>Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing (2427 JP)</a>; no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.</li>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> shares.</li>
</ul>


Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in Outsourcing (2427 JP); no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.
Stay long MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.
Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid JSR Corp (4185 JP) shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

Nihon Chouzai (3341): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...

Shared Research

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

​Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

Nihon Chouzai (3341): Q3 FY03/24 Update

​Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...

Shared Research

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...