Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.</li>
<li>CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.</li>
<li>Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.
CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.
Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.


Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
Large regional banks in the US have been troubled in 2023 by the proposed “Basel III Endgame” regulations, asset quality issues and earning pressure in terms of the high COF</li>
<li>
We believe these factors have made the sector more cyclical and vulnerable to even a mild recession scenario in 2024-25</li>
<li>
We are particularly weary of names at regulatory risk (like USB), and those with higher exposures to CRE</li>
</ul>



Large regional banks in the US have been troubled in 2023 by the proposed “Basel III Endgame” regulations, asset quality issues and earning pressure in terms of the high COF

We believe these factors have made the sector more cyclical and vulnerable to even a mild recession scenario in 2024-25

We are particularly weary of names at regulatory risk (like USB), and those with higher exposures to CRE


Equity Strategy: US Regional Banks: Not Out of the Woods Yet

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.</li><li>Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net charge-offs decreasing and GAAP net income increasing by 7%.</li><li>While economic uncertainty persists, M&T Bank's historical outperformance during uncertain times underscores its resilience and potential for shareholder value creation.</li></ul>

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net charge-offs decreasing and GAAP net income increasing by 7%.While economic uncertainty persists, M&T Bank's historical outperformance during uncertain times underscores its resilience and potential for shareholder value creation.

M&T Bank Corporation: What Is Their Biggest Growth Catalysts? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. </li>
<li>Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. </li>
<li>Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. </li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. 
Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. 
Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. 


US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

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M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Regional banks' asset quality is under greater threat given their high exposure to CRE loans. Hotels, offices, and retail assets have the highest...

Mint Finance

Equity Strategy: US Regional Banks: Not Out of the Woods Yet

US Regional Banks have been in turmoil for the last several quarters with valuations down by 40% or more on average. We think this is may not yet...

Raj S, CA, CFA

M&T Bank Corporation: What Is Their Biggest Growth Catalysts? - Major Drivers

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net...

Baptista Research

US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

New balance sheet data US big banks: weaker loan growth, more negative for CRE, higher big term deposits. Loan loss reserves continue to rise fast....

Daniel Tabbush

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