Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit quality risks are rising in US commercial real estate (CRE) and specifically in office property; furthermore, the prospect of increasing US Treasury bond issuance may heighten T-bond volatility</li>
<li>We screen for US banks that have strong capital ratios, that can deliver premium returns and can confront the rising credit quality challenges, especially in CRE</li>
<li>We maintain buys on M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding Capital One with its healthy capital ratios and low office exposure; we recommend profit taking on First Horizon</li>
</ul>


Credit quality risks are rising in US commercial real estate (CRE) and specifically in office property; furthermore, the prospect of increasing US Treasury bond issuance may heighten T-bond volatility
We screen for US banks that have strong capital ratios, that can deliver premium returns and can confront the rising credit quality challenges, especially in CRE
We maintain buys on M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding Capital One with its healthy capital ratios and low office exposure; we recommend profit taking on First Horizon


US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

<ul>
<li>US banks tightening standards for loans, as well as the downturn in loan demand, provides a silver lining for banks by reducing funding pressures as well as the increasing spreads</li>
<li>Among the regional banks, Western Alliance is seeing deposit inflows in 2Q23; more generally, the usage of the Fed’s BTFP and issuance by the FHLB seem well controlled</li>
<li>We stick with our picks M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding First Horizon to the buy list, where valuations stand out along with solid capital ratios and above average returns</li>
</ul>


US banks tightening standards for loans, as well as the downturn in loan demand, provides a silver lining for banks by reducing funding pressures as well as the increasing spreads
Among the regional banks, Western Alliance is seeing deposit inflows in 2Q23; more generally, the usage of the Fed’s BTFP and issuance by the FHLB seem well controlled
We stick with our picks M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding First Horizon to the buy list, where valuations stand out along with solid capital ratios and above average returns


US Regional Banks – Credit Spread Silver Linings to Mitigate Loan Quality and Volume Headwinds

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.</li><li>Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.</li><li>We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a 'Buy' rating.</li></ul>

This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a 'Buy' rating.

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>Declining modified loans related to the crisis is a feature of many US banks. The rate of decline is especially dramatic in Texas. The comparison to banks in New York is striking, suggesting a far better outlook for banks in the Lone Star State.</p>

Declining modified loans related to the crisis is a feature of many US banks. The rate of decline is especially dramatic in Texas. The comparison to banks in New York is striking, suggesting a far better outlook for banks in the Lone Star State.

US Banks – Modified Loans Marginal, For Some

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

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M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

We screen US banks for strong core capital ratios, premium returns and for CRE and office exposure; we keep buys on M&T Bank and Western Alliance,...

Victor Galliano

US Regional Banks – Credit Spread Silver Linings to Mitigate Loan Quality and Volume Headwinds

For US banks lower funding pressures and increasing spreads provide a silver lining against credit quality and lower volume headwinds; we like M&T...

Victor Galliano

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation. Their...

Baptista Research

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

US Banks – Modified Loans Marginal, For Some

Declining modified loans is key in the US. The rate of decline is especially dramatic in TX, especially compared to banks in NY. Perhaps the...

Daniel Tabbush

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