Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, Haitong International.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Haitong International.
Lowest spreads - Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Chindata Group (CD US), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Azure Minerals (AZS AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (30 Oct) - JSR, Eoflow, Azure Minerals, Symbio, Hollysys, Haitong Intl

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24555:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI)</a> tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>; and another MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-one-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19865:1" rel="noopener">Energy One Ltd (EOL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFflow (294090 KS)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) tilt for Azure Minerals (AZS AU); and another MBO for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).
Key updates took place for: Energy One Ltd (EOL AU), EOFflow (294090 KS) , and Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) 



(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Azure, EOFlow, Hollysys, Essential Metals, Celltrion Health

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>To avoid a repeat of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.</li>
<li>Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
To avoid a repeat of the Albemarle Corp (ALB US)/Liontown Resources (LTR AU) situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.
Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

<ul>
<li>When lithium mining play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> was halted this week "regarding a potential change of control transaction", <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24555:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI)</a> was the obvious suitor.</li>
<li>This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. </li>
<li>$3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won't affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. </li>
</ul>


When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week "regarding a potential change of control transaction", Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
$3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won't affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 


Gina Can't "Liontown" SQM's Bid For Azure

Australia

Lithium Power International Limited explores and mines lithium. The Company acquires and develops lithium projects focusing within three lithium regions in Western Australia and Argentina.

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Lithium Power International (LPI AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (30 Oct) - JSR, Eoflow, Azure Minerals, Symbio, Hollysys, Haitong Intl

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (71.8%), Eoflow (38.2%), Hollysys (22.4%), Symbio (10.1%), JSR (9.3%), Healius (8.9%), Haitong Intl...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Azure, EOFlow, Hollysys, Essential Metals, Celltrion Health

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

The scheme consideration is A$3.52 per share. To avoid the Albermarle/Liontown debacle, the offer is Rinehart-proofed with an A$3.50 off-market...

Arun George

Gina Can't "Liontown" SQM's Bid For Azure

The two-pronged approach sets a clean floor going forward at a minimum A$3.50/share. Trading tight at A$3.49/share. If you think this transaction...

David Blennerhassett

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