Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd / Event-Driven

<p>A couple of months ago, on 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mainstream-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30611:1" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU)</a> announced they had signed a Scheme Implementation Deed to be acquired by Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra in an all-cash deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~A$170mn. </p>
<p>The Offer Price was an all-time high for the stock and MAI major shareholders had agreed to vote in favour of the Transaction but there was a go-shop provision which made things interesting because MAI was a company that had achieved strong growth in Funds under Administration in the last few years especially in the US Private Equity Space.</p>
<p>In June 2020, MAI launched a key client’s unlisted managed fund (identified as Magellan's Australian subsidiary Airlie Australia Share Fund (AASF) in this <a href="https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/926881/mainstream-group-holdings-continues-to-grow-revenue-reaching-554-million-for-fy20-926881.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news article</a>) quoted on the ASX under a new structure known as a "Quoted Fund". The fund was previously an <em>unquoted</em> fund and this move permitted investors to buy and sell units through their broker on the ASX alongside the fund’s existing traditional application and redemption process administered by Mainstream. According to the company, this represented the convergence of listed and unlisted open-ended funds into a single investment vehicle, allowing fund managers to offer investors both unlisted and exchange traded entry methods in a standard fund format. MAI claimed this to be an industry first initiative - a single system that handles listed and unlisted funds together, so the data source is one repository. </p>
<p>Vistra's Offer Price of A$1.20/share translated to an EV/EBITDA (June 21E) of 14.4x and when considering the projected EBITDA CAGR of 28%+ for the following two years, the Offer Price seemed light in my opinion and the situation seemed suitable for Bumpitrage.  </p>
<p><strong>Since then, I have maintained a Bullish stance on the situation and multiple competing bidders have gotten involved causing the Terms to more than double in less than 2 months. MAI shares have risen from A$1.23 to A$2.65 in that period. </strong></p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 154px;">
<h3>Insight Title</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 434px;">
<h3>Outcome</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73px;">09-Mar-21</td>
<td style="width: 154px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-group-mai-au-go-shop-provision-makes-it-interesting" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48962" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting</a> </td>
<td style="width: 434px;">On 12th April, US-based financial technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73px;">15-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 154px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-massive-overbid-by-ss-c-now-vistra-has-to-respond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50366" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond</a> </td>
<td style="width: 434px;">MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73px;">27-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 154px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-competition-forces-ss-c-to-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50762" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump</a> </td>
<td style="width: 434px;">After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator <a href="https://www.theapexgroup.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Group Limited</a> (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73px;">29-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 154px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-three-in-a-row-bullseye" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50761" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!</a> </td>
<td style="width: 434px;">
<p>Apex <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369747-2A1295495?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021.  </p>
<p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p></p>
<p><em>More below the fold. </em></p>
<hr>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>

A couple of months ago, on 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) announced they had signed a Scheme Implementation Deed to be acquired by Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra in an all-cash deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~A$170mn. 
The Offer Price was an all-time high for the stock and MAI major shareholders had agreed to vote in favour of the Transaction but there was a go-shop provision which made things interesting because MAI was a company that had achieved strong growth in Funds under Administration in the last few years especially in the US Private Equity Space.
In June 2020, MAI launched a key client’s unlisted managed fund (identified as Magellan's Australian subsidiary Airlie Australia Share Fund (AASF) in this news article) quoted on the ASX under a new structure known as a "Quoted Fund". The fund was previously an unquoted fund and this move permitted investors to buy and sell units through their broker on the ASX alongside the fund’s existing traditional application and redemption process administered by Mainstream. According to the company, this represented the convergence of listed and unlisted open-ended funds into a single investment vehicle, allowing fund managers to offer investors both unlisted and exchange traded entry methods in a standard fund format. MAI claimed this to be an industry first initiative - a single system that handles listed and unlisted funds together, so the data source is one repository. 
Vistra's Offer Price of A$1.20/share translated to an EV/EBITDA (June 21E) of 14.4x and when considering the projected EBITDA CAGR of 28%+ for the following two years, the Offer Price seemed light in my opinion and the situation seemed suitable for Bumpitrage.  
Since then, I have maintained a Bullish stance on the situation and multiple competing bidders have gotten involved causing the Terms to more than double in less than 2 months. MAI shares have risen from A$1.23 to A$2.65 in that period. 




Date


Insight Title


Outcome



09-Mar-21

Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting 
On 12th April, US-based financial technology company Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). 


15-Apr-21

Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond 
MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. 


27-Apr-21

Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump 
After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator Apex Group Limited (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid. 


29-Apr-21

Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye! 

Apex bumped their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021.  






More below the fold. 




For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms




Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE:  Swire, Hitachi Metal, Jardine, Softbank, Bingo, Japan Asia, Mainstream

<div><p>On 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mainstream-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30611:1" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU)</a> announced they had signed a Scheme Implementation Deed to be acquired by Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra in an all-cash deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~A$170mn. The Offer Price was A$1.20/share which I felt was light on a growth-adjusted basis as I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-group-mai-au-go-shop-provision-makes-it-interesting" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48962" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting</a>. </p></div><div><blockquote><p><strong>THE TRADE:</strong> I would get LONG at or below A$1.23 during the go-shop period. Since the fall to the undisturbed price is not very large and since the Offer Price appears light on a fundamental basis, I would be tempted to play 'Bumpitrage' during the go-shop period. (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-group-mai-au-go-shop-provision-makes-it-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">written 9th Mar 2021</a>)</p></blockquote></div><div>
<h3>Hit 1</h3>
<p>Almost a month later, on 12th April 2021, MAI announced that they had received a superior bid from US-based financial technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> at an Offer Price of A$2.00/share which was 66.7% higher than Vistra's original bid of A$1.20.</p>
<h3>Hit 2</h3>
<p>In my follow-up insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-massive-overbid-by-ss-c-now-vistra-has-to-respond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50366" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond</a>, I continuing to be Bullish on the situation as I saw this as a "low-cost Bump option". MAI shares were at A$1.975 and I wrote "I would be long at or below the current trading price". A couple of days ago, on 27th April, 2021, MAI announced that SS&amp;C has bumped the Offer to A$2.25/share valuing the company at a market cap of ~U$250mn and I discussed this in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-competition-forces-ss-c-to-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50762" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump</a> reiterating my Bullish stance on the situation. </p>
<h3>Hit 3</h3>
<p>Today, MAI <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02368869-2A1295153?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that SS&amp;C has revised Terms upwards again to A$2.35/share. </p>
<div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div>
<hr>
<div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a></p></div></div></div>
<div class="content-remarks"><p>  </p></div>
</div>

On 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) announced they had signed a Scheme Implementation Deed to be acquired by Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra in an all-cash deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~A$170mn. The Offer Price was A$1.20/share which I felt was light on a growth-adjusted basis as I discussed in Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting. THE TRADE: I would get LONG at or below A$1.23 during the go-shop period. Since the fall to the undisturbed price is not very large and since the Offer Price appears light on a fundamental basis, I would be tempted to play 'Bumpitrage' during the go-shop period. (written 9th Mar 2021)
Hit 1
Almost a month later, on 12th April 2021, MAI announced that they had received a superior bid from US-based financial technology company Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) at an Offer Price of A$2.00/share which was 66.7% higher than Vistra's original bid of A$1.20.
Hit 2
In my follow-up insight, Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond, I continuing to be Bullish on the situation as I saw this as a "low-cost Bump option". MAI shares were at A$1.975 and I wrote "I would be long at or below the current trading price". A couple of days ago, on 27th April, 2021, MAI announced that SS&amp;C has bumped the Offer to A$2.25/share valuing the company at a market cap of ~U$250mn and I discussed this in Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump reiterating my Bullish stance on the situation. 
Hit 3
Today, MAI announced that SS&amp;C has revised Terms upwards again to A$2.35/share. 
More below the fold. 

For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms
  


Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!

<div>
<p>Back on the 12 October,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>  <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292481-2A1255763?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>After Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297758-2A1258281?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the proposal "<em>materially undervalued the company</em>", PEP/Carlyle <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298663-2A1258716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal included an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of A$3.80/share. Shareholders with <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298654-2A1258715?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14.62%</a> of shares out stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal. Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02300645-2A1259592?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">responded</a> that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium due diligence access nonetheless.</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>Shortly after, software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298663-2A1258716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pitched</a> a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal. Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02320482-2A1269370?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">granted</a> SSNC due diligence, despite the Offer "not being compelling". But on the 3 January, SS&amp;C <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02327774-2A1273133?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew</a> its proposal.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Then crickets. In its 1H21 results (25 Feb), Link simply <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02346108-2A1282955?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>: "<em>PEP/Carlyle engagement remains active.</em>"</div>
<div>
<div id="ember4300" data-smartkarma-discusison="83542">
<div data-ember-action="" data-ember-action-4301="4301">
<div>  </div>
<h3>The NEW News</h3>
<div>After months of Link saying to investors it has received various interest in its PEXA stake, indicative bids are now coming in for Link's 44% stake in the digital property settlements group.</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>Bids are expected to top A$1bn+ for Link's stake, or $1.86/share - vs. A$1.60/share under PEP/Carlyle's non-binding proposal.</div>
<div></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 12 October,  Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)  announced a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.


After Link said the proposal "materially undervalued the company", PEP/Carlyle tabled a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal included an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of A$3.80/share. Shareholders with 14.62% of shares out stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal. Link responded that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium due diligence access nonetheless.


Shortly after, software provider Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) pitched a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal. Link granted SSNC due diligence, despite the Offer "not being compelling". But on the 3 January, SS&amp;C withdrew its proposal.

Then crickets. In its 1H21 results (25 Feb), Link simply said: "PEP/Carlyle engagement remains active."



  
The NEW News
After months of Link saying to investors it has received various interest in its PEXA stake, indicative bids are now coming in for Link's 44% stake in the digital property settlements group.


Bids are expected to top A$1bn+ for Link's stake, or $1.86/share - vs. A$1.60/share under PEP/Carlyle's non-binding proposal.




More below the fold.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven



For the month of January, 22 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$52bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.





New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 
Waste collection
1.8
Scheme
19.8%



Bingo Industries (ASX: BIN): Talking Trash
Bingo Industries (BIN AU): CPE/MIRA's Scavenger Hunt




Hong Kong




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 
Construction
0.4
Merger by Absorption
45.1%



China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Possible Offer
China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 
Real Estate
0.4
Scheme
61.3%


Polytec Asset (208 HK): Offer By Way Of A Scheme



HKC Holdings (190 HK) 
Holding Co.
0.2
Scheme
120.39%



China Renewable Energy (987 HK): Possible Privatisation Offer
HKC (190 HK): Take-Private Offer By Way Of A Scheme




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 
Hospitality
0.25
Scheme-like
14.3%


New Century (1275 HK): Closing Down Sale



Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 
Real estate
0.1
Scheme
62.5%


Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting



China Traditional Chinese (570 HK) 
TCM
3.0
??
??


Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal



Zhejiang New Century Hotel (1158 HK) 
Hospitality
0.65
Merger by Absorption
24.7%


Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer



Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 
Ports
0.2
Scheme
37.8%


Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): Zhuhai SASAC Reloads With Scheme Offer



India




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 
Engineering
0.1
Buyback tender
10%


Hefty Engineers India Buyback Tender - Worth The Arb If You Own



Japan




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 
Wire rope
0.2
Partial
39%



Nippon Steel's HOSTILE Partial Tender Offer for Tokyo Rope: A Move to Mark Territory?
New Money for Old Rope? Gaming Out A Hostile Partial Offer on Tokyo Rope (5981)




Singapore




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 
Electronics
0.1
VGO
16.2%


CEI Limited (CEI SP): Privatization Deal by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) Trading with a View to Complete



GL Ltd (GLL SP) 
Hospitality
0.2
VGO
25.0%


GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco



Penguin International (PBS SP) 
Boat builder
0.1
VGO
30%


Penguin International (PBS SP): Friendly Privatization Deal Might Need A Bump



Europe




CA Immobilien Anlagen AG (CAI AV) 
Real estate
3.8
Offer
16.9%


CA Immo - Starwood: Mandatory Offer



Carrefour SA (CA FP) 
Convenience
20.0
Merger
29.3%


Carrefour - Alimentation Couche-Tard Non-Binding Offer



Enlabs AB (NLAB SS) 
Sports betting
0.3
Offer
1.1%


Enlabs - Entain Beefing Up



Entain (ENT LN) 
Entertainment
11.0
Offer
22%


MGM's Prospective Offer for Entain



Liberbank SA (LBK SM) 
Financing
0.9
Merger



Liberbank - Unicaja Agreed Merger



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) 
Energy
6.0
Partial offer
20%


IFM Investors to Launch a Partial Hostile Tender Offer for Naturgy



Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS) 
Medi aid
0.4
Offer
22.0%


Handicare - Savaria: Recommended Offer



Tikkurila Oyj (TIK1V FH) 
Paints
1.7
Offer
84.5%


Akzo Nobel Tops PPG's Offer for Tikkurila


Source: Smartkarma Insights




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~35%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in January of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar


(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

21-Jan: Non-binding term sheet entered into




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

18-Jan:
WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) has bumped its Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) to 1 new WAM share for every 2.675 AYS share; or A$0.70/share cash per share, from 1 new WAM share for every 2.7 AYS share; or A$0.695/share cash per share. AYS' largest shareholder, Longfrist with 19.19%, supports WAM's Offer.




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

27-Jan: Independent board rejects non-binding proposal




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

27-Jan: Shandong to compulsory acquire shares. Shares to be cease trading on the 3 Feb




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Jan: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

3-Jan: SS&amp;C withdraws proposal for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU).




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

20-Jan Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)withdraws




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No January update




WPP PLC (WPP LN) 

No January update










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

31-Dec: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair &amp; Reasonable
11-Jan: As expected, SAIF (6.13% of total issued H  shares, and 11.53% of independent H shares; and Goldwind (2.83% &amp; 5.32% respectively) have given letters of intent to support the Offer. 
25-Jan:Quiddity M&amp;A : A Guide To Mergers By Absorption




Car Inc (699 HK) 

7-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  Are We Missing Anything?
26-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  No, We Are Not Missing Anything




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

18-Jan: Bloomberg is reporting that Blackstone Group Inc., ESR Cayman Ltd., and JD Logistics Inc. are among bidders for control of China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) is also reportedly in the mix.




Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 

1-Jan: Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) delays the dispatch of the Composite Doc to the 22 January. 
15-Jan: Doc issued. Fist close is the 5 Feb




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

27-Jan: Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

20-Jan: Pre-cons satisfied. 




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

11-Jan: Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) shareholders approved the merger. 12 Jan was the last day of trading. 




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

No January update




Tonly Electronics Holdings (1249 HK) 

29-Jan: Tonly Electronics (1249 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 

18-Jan:  Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK): Doc Out. Compulsory Acquisition Afforded










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No January update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No January update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

11-Jan: Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More










Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No January update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No January update




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).
18-Jan: Murakami Fund's Tender for JAG (3751):  May Be Rangebound Near-Term
26-Jan: Japan Asia Group (3751): Murakami Wins the Mother Of All Bumps +100% 




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

4-Jan: Black Clover today reported they owned 12.29% of Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
23-Jan: Joban Kaihatsu MBO Price Bumped, Tender Extended: Still Not Rolling In Clover




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

13-Jan Tender offer fails. Funny that. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

9-Jan: Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) reported  that SMFL MIrai Partners had completed the Tender Offer for Kenedix shares and ended up with 62.35%
12-Jan: FTSE announced today that it would reduce the weight of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) in its index from 97.7309% to 34.90958490918% while keeping the share count unchanged at 218,917,200 shares. The change takes place at the close of business on the 14th of January




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

Delisted 13 January




Pressance Corp (3254 JP) 

17-Jan: Pressance Partial Tender - Almost EVERYONE Tendered




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Delisted on Jan 19




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

19-Jan: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announced the results of its Tender Offer for Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP). That will trigger an EGM and a resulting squeezeout.  It will also trigger a FTSE and MSCI downweight.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

13-Jan: Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Update - Looks Bumpity
14-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) from 20.86% (as of the last report) to 21.89% (as of the 6th of January). 
28-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position to 22.98%










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No January update




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

26-Jan: FGV (FGB MK): IFA Says Offer Not Fair








New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

28-Jan: Announced a strategic review of 51%-held Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ) 








Philippines


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

21-Jan: Tender Offer report despatched. Closing date is the 19 Feb,










Singapore


Comments 




Hi P International (HIP SP) 

No January update




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

24-Jan: First court hearing to be held on the 8 Feb.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

6-Jan: Fubon Financial Offer for Jih Sun Gets Even Weirder
7-Jan: Taiwanese news agency CNA has said that the FSC is investigating whether or not Capital Target Limited and its Responsible Officer Derek MD Chen (who I had believed to be the Responsible Person) is indeed the controller of Capital Target Limited.




Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 

Tender Offer was completed, 100% pro-ration. (Japanese)













Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


22-Jan: Offer declared unconditional




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 


18-Jan: Sche doc issued




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

No January update




KAZ Minerals (KAZ LN) 

25-Jan:  KAZ Minerals




Siltronic AG (WAF GR) 

25-Jan: GlobalWafers Ups Offer for Siltronic




Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
28-Jan: Roar bumps Offer



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No January update



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
No January update



Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP) 
11-Jan: Veolia Steps up Pressure on Suez






Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

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